Tennis · M15 Store · 05/07, 10:00
Prediction: Niccolo Baroni vs Luca Wiedenmann
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Luca Wiedenmann; the market gives 56% to Luca Wiedenmann (odds 1.67).
Over their last 10 matches, Niccolo Baroni sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Luca Wiedenmann arrives on a 7-3 run.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niccolo Baroni 1530 · Luca Wiedenmann 1535
| Niccolo Baroni | Luca Wiedenmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Niccolo Baroni | Luca Wiedenmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-6.8 | 11.9-9.5 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.8% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 56.1% | 45.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niccolo Baroni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Davide Tortora M15 Store |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Marko Retelj M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Dmitry Kopilevich M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Aljaz Jeran M15 Store |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Piotr Galus M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/06 | Vincent Dullinger M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-10 | L |
| 17/06 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 16/06 | Paolo Gabriele Marino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/06 | Sean Cuenin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-8 | L |
| 10/06 | Deren Yigin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Luca Wiedenmann
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Store |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Nikola Slavic M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Adam Jilly M15 Store |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 16/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Leonardo Tombolini Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/06 | Nikita Belozertsev M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 09/06 | Stefan Seifert M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Peter Fajta Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Dominik Macej Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niccolo Baroni vs Luca Wiedenmann?
Our model gives 53% to Luca Wiedenmann, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.