Tennis · M15 Store · 03/07, 10:00
Prediction: Niccolo Baroni vs Marko Retelj
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Niccolo Baroni; the market gives 81% to Niccolo Baroni (odds 1.14).
Recent form leaves Niccolo Baroni with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Marko Retelj has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
68%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niccolo Baroni 1519 · Marko Retelj 1508
| Niccolo Baroni | Marko Retelj | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Niccolo Baroni | Marko Retelj | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-6.9 | 8.7-8.4 |
| Aces | 2 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 2 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 62.8% |
| Break % | 55.9% | 46.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niccolo Baroni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Dmitry Kopilevich M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Aljaz Jeran M15 Store |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Piotr Galus M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/06 | Vincent Dullinger M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-10 | L |
| 17/06 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 16/06 | Paolo Gabriele Marino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/06 | Sean Cuenin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-8 | L |
| 10/06 | Deren Yigin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/06 | Marko Milosavljevic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/11 | Maik Steiner ITF M15 Tallahassee · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Marko Retelj
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Niklas Waldner M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Melios Efstathiou M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Miha Vetrih M15 Store |
2-0 | 9-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Maximilian Homberg M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Jonas Pelle Hartenstein M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-0 | 8-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Andrin Casanova M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Alessandro Battiston M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/05 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
1-2 | 6-9 | L |
| 20/05 | Michael Savano M15 Litija · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Nazar Oliynykov M15 Litija · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niccolo Baroni vs Marko Retelj?
Our model gives 68% to Niccolo Baroni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.