Tennis · M15 Store · 04/07, 10:00
Prediction: Niccolo Baroni vs Davide Tortora
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to Niccolo Baroni; the market gives 58% to Niccolo Baroni (odds 1.61).
Recent form leaves Niccolo Baroni with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Davide Tortora has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niccolo Baroni 1531 · Davide Tortora 1532
| Niccolo Baroni | Davide Tortora | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Niccolo Baroni | Davide Tortora | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-6.1 | 12.3-9.8 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 72% |
| Break % | 58.6% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niccolo Baroni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Marko Retelj M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Dmitry Kopilevich M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Aljaz Jeran M15 Store |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Piotr Galus M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/06 | Vincent Dullinger M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-10 | L |
| 17/06 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 16/06 | Paolo Gabriele Marino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/06 | Sean Cuenin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-8 | L |
| 10/06 | Deren Yigin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/06 | Marko Milosavljevic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Davide Tortora
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Attila Dominik Boros M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Aleksandr Braynin M15 Store |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Jeremy Schifris M15 Store |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Roberto Cid Subervi M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 12/05 | Tygen Goldammer M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-7 | W |
| 30/04 | Keaton Hance M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Andreas Scott M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/04 | Cannon Kingsley M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/04 | Vihaan Reddy M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/04 | Dakotah Bobo M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niccolo Baroni vs Davide Tortora?
Our model gives 54% to Niccolo Baroni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.