Tennis · M15 Store · 04/07, 10:00
Prediction: Stefano D'Agostino vs Luca Wiedenmann
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Stefano D'Agostino; the market gives 65% to Luca Wiedenmann (odds 1.44).
On recent form, Stefano D'Agostino is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Luca Wiedenmann 7-3 over theirs.
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano D'Agostino 1527 · Luca Wiedenmann 1523
| Stefano D'Agostino | Luca Wiedenmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Stefano D'Agostino makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Stefano D'Agostino | Luca Wiedenmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-9.7 | 12-10.2 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.8% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 54.3% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano D'Agostino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Michael Savano M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Maximilian Figl M15 Store |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Piotr Galus M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Maximilian Homberg M15 Store |
1-0 | 6-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Federico Iannaccone M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Georgii Kravchenko M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Iliyan Radulov M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Florent Bax M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Sean Cuenin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Carles Cordoba M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
Luca Wiedenmann
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Nikola Slavic M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Adam Jilly M15 Store |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 16/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Leonardo Tombolini Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/06 | Nikita Belozertsev M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 09/06 | Stefan Seifert M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Peter Fajta Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Dominik Macej Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/05 | Maxime Chazal M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano D'Agostino vs Luca Wiedenmann?
Our model gives 58% to Luca Wiedenmann, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.