Tennis · W100 Cary · 05/07, 04:00
Prediction: Yexin Ma vs Lucrezia Stefanini
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Lucrezia Stefanini; the market gives 65% to Lucrezia Stefanini (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Yexin Ma with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Lucrezia Stefanini has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yexin Ma 1508 · Lucrezia Stefanini 1538
| Yexin Ma | Lucrezia Stefanini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Yexin Ma makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Yexin Ma | Lucrezia Stefanini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-10.8 | 11-10 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 5 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.1% | 55% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 47.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yexin Ma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Mia Slama W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Momoko Kobori W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Reese Brantmeier W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Erika Andreeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Sonja Zhiyenbayeva W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Xinxin Yao W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Ya-Yi Yang W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/05 | Lulu Sun French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 05/05 | Viktoria Morvayova WTA Jiujiang · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 27/04 | Wushuang Zheng WTA Huzhou · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Lucrezia Stefanini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Kristina Liutova W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/07 | Haruka Kaji W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Yuki Naito W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/06 | Katarzyna Kawa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Luisina Giovannini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Yeon Woo Ku WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Vendula Valdmannova WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Lucia Bronzetti French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Alina Charaeva French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yexin Ma vs Lucrezia Stefanini?
Our model gives 60% to Lucrezia Stefanini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.