Tennis · Challenger Troyes · 04/07, 15:30
Prediction: Calvin Hemery vs Marvin Moeller
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Marvin Moeller; the market gives 56% to Calvin Hemery (odds 1.67).
Over their last 10 matches, Calvin Hemery sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Marvin Moeller arrives on a 8-2 run.
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Calvin Hemery 1533 · Marvin Moeller 1585
| Calvin Hemery | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marvin Moeller (rating 1533 vs 1585).
- Head-to-head: Calvin Hemery 1–0 Marvin Moeller (1).
Statistics
| Calvin Hemery | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.4 | 12.4-8.5 |
| Aces | 18.5 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 68.6% |
| Break % | 21% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Calvin Hemery 1 – 0 Marvin Moeller (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Calvin Hemery 1–0 Marvin Moeller
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/24 Challenger Tampere | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Calvin Hemery
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 02/06 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 27/05 | Orel Kimhi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/05 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Florent Bax Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 09/05 | Ivan Marrero Curbelo Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 08/05 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Marvin Moeller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 01/07 | Mickael Kaouk Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Dylan Dietrich M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Tom Zeuch M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 25/06 | David Tixhon M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Leo Deflandre M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Jan Kumstat M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Radek Chodora M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Calvin Hemery vs Marvin Moeller?
Our model gives 50% to Calvin Hemery, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.