Tennis · Challenger Troyes · 04/07, 10:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Giustino vs Kilian Feldbausch
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 67% to Kilian Feldbausch; the market gives 73% to Kilian Feldbausch (odds 1.28).
Over their last 10 matches, Lorenzo Giustino sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Kilian Feldbausch arrives on a 8-2 run.
70%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Giustino 1486 · Kilian Feldbausch 1609
| Lorenzo Giustino | Kilian Feldbausch | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kilian Feldbausch (rating 1486 vs 1609).
- Lorenzo Giustino dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 53% break avg.
- Kilian Feldbausch is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Lorenzo Giustino makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Giustino | Kilian Feldbausch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-13 | 12.1-7.6 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 5 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 53% | 70.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Giustino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 22/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 27/05 | Luca Nardi Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Marko Topo Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 19/05 | Kyrian Jacquet French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Kilian Feldbausch
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Ioannis Xilas Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/06 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Martin Krumich Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 30/05 | Dali Blanch Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/05 | Hynek Barton Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Giustino vs Kilian Feldbausch?
Our model gives 70% to Kilian Feldbausch, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.