Tennis · M25 Skopje · 03/07, 10:00
Prediction: Sebastian Sorger vs Yanaki Milev
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Sebastian Sorger; the market gives 77% to Sebastian Sorger (odds 1.22).
Over their last 10 matches, Sebastian Sorger sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Yanaki Milev arrives on a 2-8 run.
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Sorger 1537 · Yanaki Milev 1431
| Sebastian Sorger | Yanaki Milev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Sorger (rating 1537 vs 1431).
- Sebastian Sorger is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Yanaki Milev makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Sebastian Sorger | Yanaki Milev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.9 | 8.6-12.2 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 58.1% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 69.1% | 40.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Sorger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Aaron Funk M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Roman Postolka M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 26/06 | Khumoyun Sultanov M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Matic Dimic M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Vito Tonejc M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/06 | Andrej Nedic M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Benjamin Thomas George M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Hynek Barton Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Oliver Crawford M25 Grado · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Matthew William Donald M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Yanaki Milev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Valentino Conte M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Francisco Tomas Geschwind M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 14/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Dylan Dietrich M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Nico Hipfl M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Alessandro Battiston M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/04 | Pietro Marino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 31/03 | Max Hans Rehberg M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Sorger vs Yanaki Milev?
Our model gives 71% to Sebastian Sorger, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.