Prediction: Maria Sara Popa vs Lia Karatancheva
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to Maria Sara Popa; the market gives 56% to Lia Karatancheva (odds 1.67).
Recent form leaves Maria Sara Popa with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Lia Karatancheva has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
| Maria Sara Popa | Lia Karatancheva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Maria Sara Popa 1–0 Lia Karatancheva (1).
- Note: Maria Sara Popa makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Maria Sara Popa | Lia Karatancheva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-8 | 10.4-7.1 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 59.2% |
H2H · Maria Sara Popa 1 – 0 Lia Karatancheva (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maria Sara Popa 1–0 Lia Karatancheva
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/20 W15 Antalya | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Sara Popa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Britt Du Pree W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Lian Tran W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/06 | Clara Burel W35 Nice |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Iva Ivanova W35 Nice |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/06 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar W35 Nice |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/06 | Daria Yesypchuk W15 Focsani · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-10 | L |
| 05/06 | Diana-Ioana Simionescu W15 Focsani · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/06 | Simona Cucu W15 Focsani · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/06 | Ioana Maria Sandru W15 Focsani · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Lia Karatancheva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Nellie Taraba Wallberg W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 7-0 | W |
| 01/07 | Vittoria Paganetti W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Joy De Zeeuw W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Lucie Urbanova W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Gabriela Gregorczyk W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 18/06 | Cagla Buyukakcay W50 Haskovo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Valeria Garnevska W50 Haskovo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/05 | Lola Radivojevic W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Julia Riera W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Sara Popa vs Lia Karatancheva?
Our model gives 53% to Lia Karatancheva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.