Tennis · W15 Monastir · 03/07, 12:00
Prediction: Margaux Komano vs Emily Sartz-Lunde
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Emily Sartz-Lunde; the market gives 73% to Emily Sartz-Lunde (odds 1.28).
Recent form leaves Margaux Komano with 2 wins and 8 losses over 10 games; Emily Sartz-Lunde has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
67%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Margaux Komano 1484 · Emily Sartz-Lunde 1555
| Margaux Komano | Emily Sartz-Lunde | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emily Sartz-Lunde (rating 1484 vs 1555).
- Emily Sartz-Lunde is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Emily Sartz-Lunde makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Margaux Komano | Emily Sartz-Lunde | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.1-10.4 | 11.4-8.8 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 51.8% | 64.3% |
| Break % | 58.5% | 52.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Margaux Komano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Benedetta Ortenzi W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Karla Bartel W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 11/06 | Alice Battesti W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-11 | L |
| 10/06 | Chloe Noel W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/06 | Maria Oliver Sanchez W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Emma Mazzoni W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 27/05 | Maria Oliver Sanchez W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 29/04 | Anja Wildgruber W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-10 | L |
| 15/04 | Alba Rey Garcia W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/04 | Esther Adeshina W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Emily Sartz-Lunde
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Nada Fouad W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Sarah Victoria Majesty Nita W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 26/06 | Alyssa Reguer W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Anja Wildgruber W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Mirabelle Tahiri W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/06 | Doga Turkmen W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 30/05 | Duru Soke W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Ada Kumru W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/05 | Ingkar Dyussebay W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/05 | Irina Khayndrava W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Margaux Komano vs Emily Sartz-Lunde?
Our model gives 67% to Emily Sartz-Lunde, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.