Tennis · M15 Amstelveen · 02/07, 12:30
Prediction: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Stijn Paardekooper
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Stijn Paardekooper; the market gives 56% to Stijn Paardekooper (odds 1.67).
On recent form, Gabriele Maria Noce is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Stijn Paardekooper 6-4 over theirs.
57%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Maria Noce 1503 · Stijn Paardekooper 1559
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Stijn Paardekooper | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stijn Paardekooper (rating 1503 vs 1559).
Statistics
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Stijn Paardekooper | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10.2 | 10.7-8 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.1% | 64.3% |
| Break % | 59.1% | 49.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Maria Noce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Dax Donders M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Brian Bozemoj M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/06 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Savva Rybkin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Milan Ristov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Rocco Valente M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/06 | Calvin Mueller M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 28/05 | Lucio Ratti M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Gilberto Ravasio M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/05 | Gerard Campana Lee M15 Prijedor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Stijn Paardekooper
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Jesse De Jager M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Mac Visser M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/05 | Jiri Vesely UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/05 | Marcel Zielinski UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-1 | 15-7 | W |
| 22/05 | Tim Hammes UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/05 | Moos Van Donk UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/05 | Bas Bouwman UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/05 | Edward Etty UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/04 | Karol Malirz UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Maria Noce vs Stijn Paardekooper?
Our model gives 57% to Stijn Paardekooper, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.