Tennis · Challenger Milan · 02/07, 10:00
Prediction: Elmer Moller vs Pierluigi Basile
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Elmer Moller; the market gives 69% to Elmer Moller (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Elmer Moller sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Pierluigi Basile arrives on a 5-5 run.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elmer Moller 1565 · Pierluigi Basile 1501
| Elmer Moller | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elmer Moller (rating 1565 vs 1501).
- Note: Elmer Moller makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Elmer Moller | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.4 | 12.2-10.8 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 48.9% | 47.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elmer Moller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Luca Potenza Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/05 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 14/05 | Andy Andrade Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/05 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/05 | Nerman Fatic Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 04/05 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 26/04 | Jannik Sinner ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Federico Cina ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/04 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Pierluigi Basile
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 08/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 05/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 29/05 | Lucio Ratti M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Oskar Brostrom Poulsen M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Alberto Morolli M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/05 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 12/05 | Gabriele Piraino M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elmer Moller vs Pierluigi Basile?
Our model gives 64% to Elmer Moller, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.