Tennis · Challenger Milan · 04/07, 10:00
Prediction: Gustavo Heide vs Marco Cecchinato
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Gustavo Heide; the market gives 69% to Gustavo Heide (odds 1.36).
Recent form leaves Gustavo Heide with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Marco Cecchinato has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1614 · Marco Cecchinato 1540
| Gustavo Heide | Marco Cecchinato | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gustavo Heide (rating 1614 vs 1540).
- Gustavo Heide is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Gustavo Heide makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Marco Cecchinato | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (8) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-8.8 | 12.3-11.4 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.4% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 45% | 37.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Jan Choinski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Marco Cecchinato
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 22/06 | Tomas Barrios Vera Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 7-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 12/06 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/06 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gustavo Heide vs Marco Cecchinato?
Our model gives 65% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.