Handball · Denmark Handboldligaen · 28/09, 19:00

Prediction: Fredericia HK vs SonderjyskE

Team pages: Fredericia HK · SonderjyskE

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63Total

Fredericia HK32

SonderjyskE31

1X2

67% 33%

Fredericia HK SonderjyskE

Markets

Under 63.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Fredericia HK 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWLWL

SonderjyskE 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Fredericia HK 5–1 SonderjyskE (6 last)

Fredericia HK39-37SonderjyskE
SonderjyskE27-37Fredericia HK
Fredericia HK36-34SonderjyskE
Fredericia HK32-26SonderjyskE
SonderjyskE29-23Fredericia HK
SonderjyskE29-30Fredericia HK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fredericia HK 1520 · SonderjyskE 1480

	Fredericia HK	SonderjyskE
Our model	65%	35%
Market	61%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 63 points · Bet365 line 63.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63Fredericia HK 32 · SonderjyskE 31

Over / Under 63.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~61.1 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Fredericia HK is a clear favourite (67% market).
H2H favours Fredericia HK: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Fredericia HK	SonderjyskE
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.2 / 30.3	31.8 / 32
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29 / 28.6	31 / 32.2
Est. result	32	31

Est. total63

Line O/U63.5

Diff.0.5

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.55

X9.00

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.78

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 63.51.88

Under 63.51.88

Diff.: 1.85 · Est. total: 61.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.55▼	Bet365 1.55
X	8.50 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00
2	3.00 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:22 +32’	1.65	8.50	3.00
17:17 +10’	1.55▼	9.00▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fredericia HK 5–0–1 SonderjyskE

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	39-37	SonderjyskE
05/11/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	SonderjyskE	27-37	Fredericia HK
13/08/25 Club Friendlies	Fredericia HK	36-34	SonderjyskE
07/02/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	32-26	SonderjyskE
17/12/24 Denmark Cup	SonderjyskE	29-23	Fredericia HK
03/10/24 Denmark Handboldligaen	SonderjyskE	29-30	Fredericia HK

Standings · Denmark Handboldligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GOG	6	5	1	0	197	175	11
1	Ribe Esbjerg HH	6	5	1	0	197	175	11
3	Aalborg Handbold	6	4	1	1	186	179	9
4	Skjern Handbold	6	4	0	2	201	182	8
5	Skanderborg Handbold	6	4	0	2	204	203	8
6	Team Tvis Holstebro	7	3	1	3	225	213	7
7	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	7	3	1	3	217	222	7
8	Fredericia HK	6	3	0	3	176	167	6
9	Mors-Thy Handbold	6	3	0	3	193	190	6
10	KIF Kolding Kbh.	7	2	1	4	215	231	5
11	SonderjyskE	6	2	0	4	183	193	4
12	Nordsjaelland Handbold	6	1	1	4	180	197	3
13	Skive FH	7	1	0	6	235	252	2
14	TMS Ringsted	6	0	1	5	183	213	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fredericia HK	SonderjyskE
GOG	28-32 L	29-35 L
TMS Ringsted	31-26 W	31-22 W
Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	26-28 L	28-33 L
Aalborg Handbold	33-26 W	28-32 L
Ribe Esbjerg HH	27-31 L	35-36 L
Nordsjaelland Handbold	31-24 W	35-35 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Fredericia HK (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fredericia HK

LLLLWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	28-32	L
11/09	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	31-26	W
07/09	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Denmark Handboldligaen	26-28	L
02/09	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	33-26	W
30/08	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	27-31	L
26/08	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	31-24	W
10/05	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	31-37	L
02/05	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	26-36	L
25/04	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	27-29	L
18/04	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-34	L

SonderjyskE

DLWDLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
16/09	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark Handboldligaen	31-32	L
13/09	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	29-35	L
08/09	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	31-28	W
03/09	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Denmark Handboldligaen	28-33	L
30/08	Skive FH Denmark Handboldligaen	36-33	W
26/08	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	28-32	L
25/04	HOJ Elite Denmark Handboldligaen	34-34	D
19/04	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	31-22	W
12/04	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	35-36	L
07/04	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-35	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fredericia HK vs SonderjyskE?

Our model gives 67% to Fredericia HK.

How many points are expected in Fredericia HK vs SonderjyskE?

The model estimates 63 total points (Fredericia HK 32 · SonderjyskE 31).

Over or under 63.5 points?

Recent history points to under 63.5 points (70%).