Handball · Denmark Handboldligaen · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: GOG vs Aalborg Handbold

Team pages: GOG · Aalborg Handbold

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.7Total

GOG31.5

Aalborg Handbold32.2

1X2

38% 62%

GOG Aalborg Handbold

Recent form · 10 last

GOG 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDWWWW

Aalborg Handbold 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWDWW

Head-to-head

GOG 0–6 Aalborg Handbold (6 last)

Aalborg Handbold35-32GOG
GOG34-36Aalborg Handbold
Aalborg Handbold35-29GOG
GOG26-33Aalborg Handbold
Aalborg Handbold40-29GOG
Aalborg Handbold3-1GOG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GOG 1554 · Aalborg Handbold 1631

	GOG	Aalborg Handbold
Our model	49%	51%
Market	28%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 63.7 points · Bet365 line 64.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.7GOG 31.5 · Aalborg Handbold 32.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aalborg Handbold (rating 1554 vs 1631).
H2H favours Aalborg Handbold: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	GOG	Aalborg Handbold
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.2 / 29.9	32.4 / 30.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.8 / 29.2	31.8 / 30.4
Est. result	32	32

Est. total63.7

Line O/U64.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.40

X9.00

21.52

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.80

2 (-2.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.88

Under 64.51.88

Diff.: 1.55 · Est. total: 62.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
X	9.50 → 9.00▼	Bet365 9.00
2	1.42 → 1.52▲	Bet365 1.52

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:19 +37’	4.00	9.50	1.42
17:44 +28’	3.40▼	9.00▼	1.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · GOG 0–0–6 Aalborg Handbold

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Aalborg Handbold	35-32	GOG
18/04/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	GOG	34-36	Aalborg Handbold
14/02/26 Denmark Cup	Aalborg Handbold	35-29	GOG
10/12/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	GOG	26-33	Aalborg Handbold
13/09/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Aalborg Handbold	40-29	GOG
27/05/25 HB-SWHBM	Aalborg Handbold	3-1	GOG

Standings · Denmark Handboldligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GOG	7	6	1	0	233	206	13
2	Ribe Esbjerg HH	7	5	1	1	228	211	11
3	Aalborg Handbold	7	5	1	1	222	209	11
4	Skanderborg Handbold	7	5	0	2	242	232	10
5	Skjern Handbold	7	4	0	3	228	213	8
6	Team Tvis Holstebro	7	3	1	3	225	213	7
7	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	7	3	1	3	217	222	7
8	SonderjyskE	7	3	0	4	214	223	6
9	Mors-Thy Handbold	7	3	0	4	222	228	6
10	Fredericia HK	7	3	0	4	206	198	6
11	Nordsjaelland Handbold	7	2	1	4	211	224	5
12	KIF Kolding Kbh.	7	2	1	4	215	231	5
13	Skive FH	7	1	0	6	235	252	2
14	TMS Ringsted	7	0	1	6	213	249	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GOG	Aalborg Handbold
Fredericia HK	32-28 W	26-33 L
SonderjyskE	35-29 W	32-28 W
Mors-Thy Handbold	32-29 W	37-35 W
Team Tvis Holstebro	29-29 D	31-29 W
Skanderborg Handbold	34-31 W	35-31 W
Skjern Handbold	35-29 W	33-30 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: GOG (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GOG

LWWWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/09	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	36-31	W
19/09	Fredericia HK Denmark Handboldligaen	32-28	W
13/09	SonderjyskE Denmark Handboldligaen	35-29	W
06/09	Mors-Thy Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-29	W
03/09	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	29-29	D
29/08	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	34-31	W
25/08	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-29	W
04/06	Mors-Thy Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-29	W
31/05	Mors-Thy Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	38-31	W
23/05	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	26-33	L

Aalborg Handbold

WWWWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	36-30	W
20/09	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	34-29	W
12/09	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Denmark Handboldligaen	30-30	D
05/09	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	33-30	W
02/09	Fredericia HK Denmark Handboldligaen	26-33	L
30/08	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	31-29	W
26/08	SonderjyskE Denmark Handboldligaen	32-28	W
04/06	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-31	W
31/05	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	30-29	W
23/05	Mors-Thy Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	37-35	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GOG vs Aalborg Handbold?

Our model gives 62% to Aalborg Handbold.

How many points are expected in GOG vs Aalborg Handbold?

The model estimates 63.7 total points (GOG 31.5 · Aalborg Handbold 32.2).