Handball · Portugal 2a Divisao · 19/09, 21:00
Prediction: Samora Correia vs C. Oriental Lisboa
Prediction summary
Estimated points
55.2Total
Samora Correia29.5
C. Oriental Lisboa25.7
1X2
Samora Correia
C. Oriental Lisboa
Markets
Over 53.5 points 75%
Recent form · 10 last
Samora Correia
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
C. Oriental Lisboa
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Samora Correia
0–1
C. Oriental Lisboa
(1 last)
- C. Oriental Lisboa20-17Samora Correia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Samora Correia 1552 · C. Oriental Lisboa 1460
| Samora Correia | C. Oriental Lisboa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 28% |
| Market | 74% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
55.2 points · Bet365 line 53.5 · +1.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points55.2Samora Correia 29.5 · C. Oriental Lisboa 25.7
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Samora Correia (rating 1552 vs 1460).
- Samora Correia is a clear favourite (78% market).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Samora Correia | C. Oriental Lisboa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 30.4 / 24.8 | 27.1 / 28.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 33.2 / 26.4 | 27.8 / 29.8 |
| Est. result | 30 | 26 |
Est. total55.2
Line O/U53.5
Diff.1.7
Over / Under75% / 25%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Samora Correia 0–0–1 C. Oriental Lisboa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/25 Portugal 3a Divisao | C. Oriental Lisboa | 20-17 | Samora Correia |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Samora Correia | C. Oriental Lisboa |
|---|---|---|
| Alto Moinho | 32-26 W | 27-28 L |
| CA Rangers Telheiras | 27-28 L | 26-24 W |
| UJ Alverca | 38-15 W | 27-27 D |
| GM 1 Dezembro | 38-32 W | 27-35 L |
| CSS Pinhal Frades | 31-31 D | 31-32 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Samora Correia (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Samora Correia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | Alto Moinho Portugal 2a Divisao |
32-26 | W |
| 06/06 | CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao |
27-28 | L |
| 04/06 | UJ Alverca Portugal 2a Divisao |
38-15 | W |
| 30/05 | GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao |
38-32 | W |
| 23/05 | CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao |
31-31 | D |
| 06/05 | Alto Moinho Portugal 2a Divisao |
40-28 | W |
| 18/04 | UJ Alverca Portugal 2a Divisao |
23-23 | D |
| 30/03 | CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao |
33-30 | W |
| 11/02 | GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao |
33-28 | W |
| 22/01 | GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao |
9-7 | W |
C. Oriental Lisboa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06 | GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao |
27-35 | L |
| 06/06 | CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao |
31-32 | L |
| 04/06 | Club Naval Setubalense Portugal 2a Divisao |
27-27 | D |
| 27/05 | UJ Alverca Portugal 2a Divisao |
27-27 | D |
| 22/05 | Alto Moinho Portugal 2a Divisao |
27-28 | L |
| 13/05 | CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao |
31-38 | L |
| 09/05 | CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao |
26-24 | W |
| 30/04 | GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao |
26-27 | L |
| 11/04 | UJ Alverca Portugal 2a Divisao |
22-16 | W |
| 02/04 | Alto Moinho Portugal 2a Divisao |
27-32 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Samora Correia vs C. Oriental Lisboa?
Our model gives 78% to Samora Correia.
How many points are expected in Samora Correia vs C. Oriental Lisboa?
The model estimates 55.2 total points (Samora Correia 29.5 · C. Oriental Lisboa 25.7).