Handball · Iceland Úrvalsdeild · 27/10, 20:30

Prediction: UMF Selfoss vs Fram Reykjavik

Team pages: Fram Reykjavik

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.1Total

UMF Selfoss32.4

Fram Reykjavik32.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

43% 57%

UMF Selfoss Fram Reykjavik

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

UMF Selfoss 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDLLLL

Fram Reykjavik 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

UMF Selfoss 2–4 Fram Reykjavik (6 last)

Fram Reykjavik38-29UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss32-31Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik28-24UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss27-28Fram Reykjavik
UMF Selfoss32-30Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik33-26UMF Selfoss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMF Selfoss 1388 · Fram Reykjavik 1443

	UMF Selfoss	Fram Reykjavik
Our model	52%	48%
Market	33%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 65.1 points · Bet365 line 63.5 · +1.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.1UMF Selfoss 32.4 · Fram Reykjavik 32.7

Match keys

H2H favours Fram Reykjavik: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	UMF Selfoss	Fram Reykjavik
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.2 / 34.1	29.8 / 34.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.8 / 35.4	26.8 / 37.4
Est. result	32	33

Est. total65.1

Line O/U63.5

Diff.1.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.70

X8.50

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 63.51.75

Under 63.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · Est. total: 63.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:15	2.70	8.50	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UMF Selfoss 2–0–4 Fram Reykjavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/12/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Fram Reykjavik	38-29	UMF Selfoss
19/09/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Selfoss	32-31	Fram Reykjavik
22/02/24 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Fram Reykjavik	28-24	UMF Selfoss
13/10/23 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Selfoss	27-28	Fram Reykjavik
10/12/22 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Selfoss	32-30	Fram Reykjavik
08/09/22 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Fram Reykjavik	33-26	UMF Selfoss

Standings · Iceland Úrvalsdeild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar Hafnafjordur	7	7	0	0	250	198	14
2	FH Hafnafjordur	7	5	1	1	250	221	11
3	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar	7	5	0	2	229	208	10
4	Valur	7	5	0	2	262	239	10
5	UMF Afturelding	7	4	1	2	240	210	9
6	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	7	3	0	4	216	228	6
7	Thor AK	7	3	0	4	239	245	6
8	UMF Stjarnan	7	2	1	4	231	243	5
9	Vikingur	7	2	0	5	217	239	4
10	HK Kopavogs	7	2	0	5	213	239	4
11	Fram Reykjavik	7	2	0	5	219	261	4
12	UMF Selfoss	7	0	1	6	206	241	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMF Selfoss	Fram Reykjavik
Haukar Hafnafjordur	22-31 L	23-39 L
FH Hafnafjordur	31-36 L	28-36 L
UMF Afturelding	34-42 L	24-42 L
UMF Stjarnan	34-34 D	29-37 L
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	27-30 L	30-33 L
Valur	30-34 L	47-40 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: UMF Selfoss (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UMF Selfoss

LLDLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
21/10	Vikingur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	28-34	L
15/10	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	22-31	L
03/10	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-36	L
24/09	UMF Afturelding Iceland Úrvalsdeild	34-42	L
16/09	UMF Stjarnan Iceland Úrvalsdeild	34-34	D
10/09	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	27-30	L
03/09	Valur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	30-34	L
12/03	UMF Afturelding Iceland Úrvalsdeild	27-27	D
09/03	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	28-35	L
05/03	HK Kopavogs Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-38	L

Fram Reykjavik

WLLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/10	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	23-39	L
17/10	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	28-36	L
01/10	UMF Afturelding Iceland Úrvalsdeild	24-42	L
24/09	UMF Stjarnan Iceland Úrvalsdeild	29-37	L
17/09	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	30-33	L
11/09	Valur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	47-40	W
05/09	Thor AK Iceland Úrvalsdeild	38-34	W
30/03	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	27-33	L
26/03	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	26-28	L
12/03	UMF Stjarnan Iceland Úrvalsdeild	26-24	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMF Selfoss vs Fram Reykjavik?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (UMF Selfoss 43% · Fram Reykjavik 57%).

How many points are expected in UMF Selfoss vs Fram Reykjavik?

The model estimates 65.1 total points (UMF Selfoss 32.4 · Fram Reykjavik 32.7).