Handball · Iceland Úrvalsdeild · 31/10, 16:30

Prediction: Valur vs UMF Afturelding

Team pages: Valur · UMF Afturelding

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.2Total

Valur32.6

UMF Afturelding32.5

1X2

71% 29%

Valur UMF Afturelding

Recent form · 10 last

Valur 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWLWWW

UMF Afturelding 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Valur 4–2 UMF Afturelding (6 last)

UMF Afturelding27-35Valur
Valur35-25UMF Afturelding
Valur33-29UMF Afturelding
UMF Afturelding29-26Valur
Valur30-29UMF Afturelding
UMF Afturelding31-23Valur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valur 1586 · UMF Afturelding 1534

	Valur	UMF Afturelding
Our model	67%	33%
Market	66%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 65.2 points · Bet365 line 64.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.2Valur 32.6 · UMF Afturelding 32.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valur (rating 1586 vs 1534).
Valur is a clear favourite (71% market).
H2H favours Valur: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Valur	UMF Afturelding
Points F\|A (Last 10)	34.7 / 32.3	32.8 / 29.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	37 / 32.2	36 / 30
Est. result	33	33

Est. total65.2

Line O/U64.5

Diff.0.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.37

X9.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.90

2 (+3.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.85

Under 64.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · Est. total: 64.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.37 → 1.37	Bet365 1.37
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:45 +34’	1.37	9.50	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Valur 4–0–2 UMF Afturelding

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Afturelding	27-35	Valur
09/10/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Valur	35-25	UMF Afturelding
02/05/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Valur	33-29	UMF Afturelding
28/04/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Afturelding	29-26	Valur
25/04/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Valur	30-29	UMF Afturelding
22/04/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Afturelding	31-23	Valur

Standings · Iceland Úrvalsdeild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar Hafnafjordur	9	9	0	0	323	247	18
2	Valur	9	7	0	2	339	310	14
3	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar	9	6	0	3	295	277	12
4	UMF Afturelding	9	5	1	3	315	284	11
5	FH Hafnafjordur	8	5	1	2	283	260	11
6	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	8	4	0	4	246	257	8
7	Fram Reykjavik	8	3	0	5	254	290	6
8	Thor AK	8	3	0	5	273	283	6
9	UMF Stjarnan	8	2	1	5	265	280	5
10	Vikingur	8	2	0	6	246	269	4
11	HK Kopavogs	8	2	0	6	235	276	4
12	UMF Selfoss	8	0	1	7	235	276	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valur	UMF Afturelding
Vikingur	41-31 W	35-29 W
Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar	33-39 L	28-32 L
HK Kopavogs	38-29 W	30-26 W
Fram Reykjavik	40-47 L	42-24 W
UMF Selfoss	34-30 W	42-34 W
FH Hafnafjordur	27-26 W	33-33 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valur

WDWWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/10	UMF Stjarnan Iceland Úrvalsdeild	37-34	W
23/10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	36-28	W
16/10	Vikingur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	41-31	W
25/09	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	33-39	L
16/09	HK Kopavogs Iceland Úrvalsdeild	38-29	W
11/09	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	40-47	L
03/09	UMF Selfoss Iceland Úrvalsdeild	34-30	W
07/05	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	27-26	W
04/05	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	29-29	D
30/04	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	32-30	W

UMF Afturelding

WLWDLWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/10	Thor AK Iceland Úrvalsdeild	38-34	W
22/10	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	28-32	L
15/10	HK Kopavogs Iceland Úrvalsdeild	30-26	W
01/10	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	42-24	W
24/09	UMF Selfoss Iceland Úrvalsdeild	42-34	W
16/09	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	30-32	L
10/09	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	33-33	D
04/09	Vikingur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	35-29	W
02/04	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	24-32	L
30/03	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	26-22	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valur vs UMF Afturelding?

Our model gives 71% to Valur.

How many points are expected in Valur vs UMF Afturelding?

The model estimates 65.2 total points (Valur 32.6 · UMF Afturelding 32.5).