Handball · Iceland Úrvalsdeild · 27/10, 19:30

Prediction: UMF Afturelding vs Thor AK

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.4Total

UMF Afturelding31.5

Thor AK29.9

1X2

65% 35%

UMF Afturelding Thor AK

Recent form · 10 last

UMF Afturelding 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWWWL

Thor AK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWWLLW

Head-to-head

UMF Afturelding 2–1–1 Thor AK (4 last)

UMF Afturelding24-26Thor AK
Thor AK23-23UMF Afturelding
Thor AK24-36UMF Afturelding
UMF Afturelding24-22Thor AK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMF Afturelding 1525 · Thor AK 1524

	UMF Afturelding	Thor AK
Our model	60%	40%
Market	62%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 61.4 points · Bet365 line 64.5 · -3.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.4UMF Afturelding 31.5 · Thor AK 29.9

Match keys

UMF Afturelding is a clear favourite (65% market).
H2H favours UMF Afturelding: 2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	UMF Afturelding	Thor AK
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.6 / 29.8	32.4 / 32.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	34.4 / 29.6	34 / 33.4
Est. result	32	30

Est. total61.4

Line O/U64.5

Diff.3.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.45

X9.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.85

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.80

Under 64.51.90

Diff.: 1.25 · Est. total: 63.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:58 +17’	1.45	9.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UMF Afturelding 2–1–1 Thor AK

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Afturelding	24-26	Thor AK
14/11/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Thor AK	23-23	UMF Afturelding
01/03/21 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Thor AK	24-36	UMF Afturelding
10/09/20 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Afturelding	24-22	Thor AK

Standings · Iceland Úrvalsdeild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar Hafnafjordur	7	7	0	0	250	198	14
2	FH Hafnafjordur	7	5	1	1	250	221	11
3	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar	7	5	0	2	229	208	10
4	Valur	7	5	0	2	262	239	10
5	UMF Afturelding	7	4	1	2	240	210	9
6	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	7	3	0	4	216	228	6
7	Thor AK	7	3	0	4	239	245	6
8	UMF Stjarnan	7	2	1	4	231	243	5
9	Vikingur	7	2	0	5	217	239	4
10	HK Kopavogs	7	2	0	5	213	239	4
11	Fram Reykjavik	7	2	0	5	219	261	4
12	UMF Selfoss	7	0	1	6	206	241	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMF Afturelding	Thor AK
Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar	28-32 L	35-31 W
HK Kopavogs	30-26 W	36-31 W
Fram Reykjavik	42-24 W	34-38 L
UMF Selfoss	42-34 W	35-33 W
Haukar Hafnafjordur	30-32 L	28-34 L
Vikingur	35-29 W	31-36 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: UMF Afturelding (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UMF Afturelding

LWLWDLWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
22/10	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	28-32	L
15/10	HK Kopavogs Iceland Úrvalsdeild	30-26	W
01/10	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	42-24	W
24/09	UMF Selfoss Iceland Úrvalsdeild	42-34	W
16/09	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	30-32	L
10/09	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	33-33	D
04/09	Vikingur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	35-29	W
02/04	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	24-32	L
30/03	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	26-22	W
26/03	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	26-34	L

Thor AK

WLWDLWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
21/10	UMF Stjarnan Iceland Úrvalsdeild	37-32	W
16/10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-37	L
25/09	Vikingur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-36	L
16/09	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	35-31	W
10/09	HK Kopavogs Iceland Úrvalsdeild	36-31	W
05/09	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	34-38	L
12/03	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-31	D
09/03	UMF Afturelding Iceland Úrvalsdeild	26-24	W
04/03	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	28-34	L
21/02	UMF Selfoss Iceland Úrvalsdeild	35-33	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMF Afturelding vs Thor AK?

Our model gives 65% to UMF Afturelding.

How many points are expected in UMF Afturelding vs Thor AK?

The model estimates 61.4 total points (UMF Afturelding 31.5 · Thor AK 29.9).