Handball · Iceland Úrvalsdeild · 27/10, 20:15

Prediction: UMF Stjarnan vs Valur

Team pages: Valur

Prediction summary

Estimated points

64.7Total

UMF Stjarnan30.7

Valur34

1X2

26% 74%

UMF Stjarnan Valur

Recent form · 10 last

UMF Stjarnan 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWLWL

Valur 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

UMF Stjarnan 1–1–4 Valur (6 last)

Valur31-24UMF Stjarnan
UMF Stjarnan27-32Valur
UMF Stjarnan26-26Valur
Valur30-21UMF Stjarnan
Valur40-34UMF Stjarnan
UMF Stjarnan28-25Valur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMF Stjarnan 1438 · Valur 1553

	UMF Stjarnan	Valur
Our model	44%	56%
Market	14%	79%

Estimated total (ours) 64.7 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points64.7UMF Stjarnan 30.7 · Valur 34

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valur (rating 1438 vs 1553).
Valur is a clear favourite (74% market).
H2H favours Valur: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	UMF Stjarnan	Valur
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.2 / 33.7	33.5 / 32
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33.8 / 33.6	37.6 / 34.8
Est. result	31	34

Est. total64.7

Line O/U65.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

16.50

X13.00

21.14

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+5.5)1.95

2 (-5.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.85

Under 65.51.85

Diff.: 0.8 · Est. total: 64.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:35 +41’	6.50	13.00	1.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UMF Stjarnan 1–1–4 Valur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/11/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Valur	31-24	UMF Stjarnan
03/09/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Stjarnan	27-32	Valur
08/04/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Stjarnan	26-26	Valur
05/04/25 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Valur	30-21	UMF Stjarnan
13/12/24 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	Valur	40-34	UMF Stjarnan
19/09/24 Iceland Úrvalsdeild	UMF Stjarnan	28-25	Valur

Standings · Iceland Úrvalsdeild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar Hafnafjordur	7	7	0	0	250	198	14
2	FH Hafnafjordur	7	5	1	1	250	221	11
3	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar	7	5	0	2	229	208	10
4	Valur	7	5	0	2	262	239	10
5	UMF Afturelding	7	4	1	2	240	210	9
6	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	7	3	0	4	216	228	6
7	Thor AK	7	3	0	4	239	245	6
8	UMF Stjarnan	7	2	1	4	231	243	5
9	Vikingur	7	2	0	5	217	239	4
10	HK Kopavogs	7	2	0	5	213	239	4
11	Fram Reykjavik	7	2	0	5	219	261	4
12	UMF Selfoss	7	0	1	6	206	241	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMF Stjarnan	Valur
Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar	35-33 W	33-39 L
HK Kopavogs	31-35 L	38-29 W
Fram Reykjavik	37-29 W	40-47 L
UMF Selfoss	34-34 D	34-30 W
FH Hafnafjordur	31-38 L	27-26 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valur (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UMF Stjarnan

LLLLLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
21/10	Thor AK Iceland Úrvalsdeild	32-37	L
16/10	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	35-33	W
04/10	HK Kopavogs Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-35	L
24/09	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	37-29	W
16/09	UMF Selfoss Iceland Úrvalsdeild	34-34	D
11/09	Haukar Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-37	L
04/09	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	31-38	L
12/03	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	24-26	L
09/03	IR Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	26-30	L
06/03	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	21-38	L

Valur

LWDWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	36-28	W
16/10	Vikingur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	41-31	W
25/09	Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar Iceland Úrvalsdeild	33-39	L
16/09	HK Kopavogs Iceland Úrvalsdeild	38-29	W
11/09	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Úrvalsdeild	40-47	L
03/09	UMF Selfoss Iceland Úrvalsdeild	34-30	W
07/05	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	27-26	W
04/05	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	29-29	D
30/04	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	32-30	W
27/04	FH Hafnafjordur Iceland Úrvalsdeild	25-31	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMF Stjarnan vs Valur?

Our model gives 74% to Valur.

How many points are expected in UMF Stjarnan vs Valur?

The model estimates 64.7 total points (UMF Stjarnan 30.7 · Valur 34).