Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: SL Benfica vs Belenenses

Team pages: SL Benfica · Belenenses

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.9Total

SL Benfica32.6

Belenenses27.3

1X2

86% 14%

SL Benfica Belenenses

Markets

Under 62.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

SL Benfica 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLWWW

Belenenses 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLLLLW

Head-to-head

SL Benfica 6–0 Belenenses (6 last)

Belenenses29-30SL Benfica
SL Benfica37-25Belenenses
SL Benfica44-31Belenenses
Belenenses26-35SL Benfica
Belenenses25-31SL Benfica
SL Benfica30-17Belenenses

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SL Benfica 1522 · Belenenses 1451

	SL Benfica	Belenenses
Our model	69%	31%
Market	94%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 59.9 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.9SL Benfica 32.6 · Belenenses 27.3

Over / Under 62.5Under · 65%recent trend · ~60.4 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SL Benfica (rating 1522 vs 1451).
SL Benfica is a clear favourite (86% market).
H2H favours SL Benfica: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SL Benfica	Belenenses
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.1 / 28.5	28 / 31.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	35 / 28.8	26.2 / 33
Est. result	33	27

Est. total59.9

Line O/U62.5

Diff.2.6

Over / Under35% / 65%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.00

X30.00

230.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-12.5)1.85

2 (+12.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.85

Under 62.51.85

Diff.: 2.1 · Est. total: 60.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.00 → 1.00▲	Bet365 1.00
X	67.00 → 30.00▼	Bet365 30.00
2	67.00 → 30.00▼	Bet365 30.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:11 +6’	1.00	67.00	67.00
12:57 +26’	1.00▲	30.00▼	30.00▼
14:20 +1’	1.00▼	45.00▲	50.00▲
14:23 +57’	1.00▲	30.00▼	30.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SL Benfica 6–0–0 Belenenses

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	29-30	SL Benfica
06/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	37-25	Belenenses
21/02/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	44-31	Belenenses
26/10/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	26-35	SL Benfica
25/11/23 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	25-31	SL Benfica
09/09/23 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	30-17	Belenenses

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	7	7	0	296	184	21
2	FC Porto	7	7	0	280	174	21
3	SL Benfica	7	5	2	246	197	17
4	Madeira	6	5	1	195	177	16
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	7	4	3	221	215	15
6	Vitoria SC	8	3	5	228	276	14
7	Aguas Santas	7	3	4	209	210	13
8	ABC Braga	7	3	4	206	234	13
9	Belenenses	7	2	5	186	220	11
10	GC Santo Tirso	7	1	6	187	237	9
11	AD Carvalhos	7	1	6	175	239	9
12	AA Avanca	7	1	6	175	241	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SL Benfica	Belenenses
ABC Braga	39-34 W	28-23 W
AA Avanca	38-20 W	26-31 L
Sporting Clube	27-32 L	27-43 L
FC Porto	33-37 L	25-40 L
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	37-30 W	25-28 L
Aguas Santas	34-23 W	28-31 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: SL Benfica (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SL Benfica

WWLWWLLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	38-21	W
26/09	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	39-34	W
23/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	38-20	W
19/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-32	L
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	33-37	L
05/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	37-30	W
29/08	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	34-23	W
23/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	22-34	L
09/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-29	W
02/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	31-25	W

Belenenses

WLDWLLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	28-23	W
26/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	26-31	L
23/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-43	L
20/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	25-40	L
12/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	25-28	L
05/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	28-31	L
29/08	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	27-24	W
23/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
10/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-32	L
02/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SL Benfica vs Belenenses?

Our model gives 86% to SL Benfica.

How many points are expected in SL Benfica vs Belenenses?

The model estimates 59.9 total points (SL Benfica 32.6 · Belenenses 27.3).

Over or under 62.5 points?

Recent history points to under 62.5 points (65%).