Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 29/08, 19:00

Prediction: Frisch Auf Goppingen vs HC Erlangen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.9Total

Frisch Auf Goppingen30.1

HC Erlangen26.8

1X2

76% 24%

Frisch Auf Goppingen HC Erlangen

Recent form · 10 last

Frisch Auf Goppingen 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDWWLL

HC Erlangen 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Frisch Auf Goppingen 4–2 HC Erlangen (6 last)

Frisch Auf Goppingen27-24HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen28-29Frisch Auf Goppingen
Frisch Auf Goppingen25-24HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen28-24Frisch Auf Goppingen
Frisch Auf Goppingen32-29HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen28-26Frisch Auf Goppingen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Frisch Auf Goppingen 1557 · HC Erlangen 1431

	Frisch Auf Goppingen	HC Erlangen
Our model	76%	24%
Market	69%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 56.9 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.9Frisch Auf Goppingen 30.1 · HC Erlangen 26.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frisch Auf Goppingen (rating 1557 vs 1431).
Frisch Auf Goppingen is a clear favourite (76% market).
H2H favours Frisch Auf Goppingen: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Frisch Auf Goppingen	HC Erlangen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30 / 28.6	25.6 / 30.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.8 / 29.8	24 / 27.8
Est. result	30	27

Est. total56.9

Line O/U56.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.37

X9.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.78

2 (+2.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.88

Under 56.51.88

Diff.: 0.8 · Est. total: 57.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.37▼	Bet365 1.37
X	8.50 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00
2	4.25 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:25 +323’	1.42	8.50	4.25
20:39 +8’	1.37▼	9.00▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Frisch Auf Goppingen 4–0–2 HC Erlangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Germany Bundesliga	Frisch Auf Goppingen	27-24	HC Erlangen
06/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	28-29	Frisch Auf Goppingen
04/05/25 Germany Bundesliga	Frisch Auf Goppingen	25-24	HC Erlangen
29/11/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	28-24	Frisch Auf Goppingen
24/03/24 Germany Bundesliga	Frisch Auf Goppingen	32-29	HC Erlangen
24/11/23 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	28-26	Frisch Auf Goppingen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	1	1	0	35	27	2
2	Fuchse Berlin	1	1	0	33	31	2
3	Bergischer HC	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Frisch Auf Goppingen	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	HC Erlangen	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	HSV Hamburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	HSG Wetzlar	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Rhein Neckar Lowen	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SC Magdeburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SG BBM Bietigheim	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	ThSV Eisenach	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Vfl Gummersbach	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	MT Melsungen	1	0	1	31	33	0
18	TBV Lemgo	1	0	1	27	35	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Frisch Auf Goppingen	HC Erlangen
Bergischer HC	28-29 L	26-32 L
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	32-33 L	17-22 L
HSV Hamburg	34-28 W	23-31 L
HSG Wetzlar	31-30 W	26-29 L
Vfl Gummersbach	29-29 D	22-26 L
Rhein Neckar Lowen	32-30 W	29-27 W
SC DHFK Leipzig	34-29 W	29-30 L
SC Magdeburg	23-27 L	31-35 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Frisch Auf Goppingen (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Frisch Auf Goppingen

WWLWWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/06	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
03/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	32-33	L
25/05	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	34-28	W
07/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-30	W
30/04	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	29-29	D
23/04	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	32-30	W
09/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	34-29	W
05/04	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	23-27	L
29/03	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	27-24	W
15/03	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	30-27	W

HC Erlangen

LLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L
29/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
23/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
10/05	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	22-26	L
30/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
25/04	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	23-31	L
12/04	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	31-35	L
05/04	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	29-27	W
29/03	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	24-27	L
15/03	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	29-45	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Frisch Auf Goppingen vs HC Erlangen?

Our model gives 76% to Frisch Auf Goppingen.

How many points are expected in Frisch Auf Goppingen vs HC Erlangen?

The model estimates 56.9 total points (Frisch Auf Goppingen 30.1 · HC Erlangen 26.8).