Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 17/10, 17:00

Prediction: Vitoria SC vs AA Avanca

Team pages: Vitoria SC · AA Avanca

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.2Total

Vitoria SC31.4

AA Avanca28.7

1X2

78% 22%

Vitoria SC AA Avanca

Markets

Over 57.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Vitoria SC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWLLL

AA Avanca 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Vitoria SC 3–1–2 AA Avanca (6 last)

AA Avanca27-33Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC26-26AA Avanca
Vitoria SC28-26AA Avanca
AA Avanca34-33Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC32-34AA Avanca
Vitoria SC30-28AA Avanca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitoria SC 1505 · AA Avanca 1423

	Vitoria SC	AA Avanca
Our model	71%	29%
Market	76%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 60.2 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +2.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.2Vitoria SC 31.4 · AA Avanca 28.7

Over / Under 57.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~60.4 pts · strength 3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vitoria SC (rating 1505 vs 1423).
Vitoria SC is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours Vitoria SC: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Vitoria SC	AA Avanca
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.3 / 32.8	26.2 / 33.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.4 / 36.6	24.8 / 30.6
Est. result	31	29

Est. total60.2

Line O/U57.5

Diff.2.7

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.18

X11.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.75

2 (+4.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.75

Under 57.51.95

Diff.: 3.5 · Est. total: 61

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 01:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:52 +26’	1.18	11.00	5.50
20:06 +12’	1.27▲	9.50▼	4.50▼
22:55 +21’	1.22▼	10.00▲	5.00▲
01:11 +5’	1.18▼	11.00▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria SC 3–1–2 AA Avanca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	AA Avanca	27-33	Vitoria SC
11/04/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	26-26	AA Avanca
29/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	28-26	AA Avanca
13/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	AA Avanca	34-33	Vitoria SC
18/04/25 Portugal Cup	Vitoria SC	32-34	AA Avanca
08/02/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	30-28	AA Avanca

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	7	7	0	0	296	184	21
2	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	280	174	21
3	SL Benfica	8	6	0	2	281	228	20
4	Madeira	7	6	0	1	231	199	19
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	8	5	0	3	250	243	18
6	ABC Braga	8	4	0	4	236	260	16
7	Vitoria SC	9	3	1	5	248	296	16
8	Belenenses	9	3	0	6	244	276	15
9	Aguas Santas	7	3	0	4	209	210	13
10	AA Avanca	9	1	1	7	217	297	12
11	GC Santo Tirso	9	1	0	8	236	293	11
12	AD Carvalhos	8	1	0	7	201	269	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitoria SC	AA Avanca
Sporting Clube	23-51 L	23-46 L
FC Porto	21-47 L	20-42 L
GC Santo Tirso	28-26 W	30-36 L
Madeira	37-38 L	22-36 L
AD Carvalhos	35-28 W	25-26 L
Belenenses	24-27 L	31-26 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vitoria SC

WWLWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/10	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	23-51	L
03/10	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	21-47	L
26/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
23/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	33-29	W
19/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	28-26	W
12/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	37-38	L
05/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	35-28	W
29/08	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	24-27	L
23/05	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	32-25	W
09/05	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	33-27	W

AA Avanca

LWLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	22-36	L
05/10	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	25-26	L
26/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-26	W
23/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	20-38	L
19/09	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	26-27	L
12/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	30-36	L
29/08	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	20-42	L
26/08	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	23-46	L
23/05	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	38-27	W
09/05	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	27-33	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitoria SC vs AA Avanca?

Our model gives 78% to Vitoria SC.

How many points are expected in Vitoria SC vs AA Avanca?

The model estimates 60.2 total points (Vitoria SC 31.4 · AA Avanca 28.7).

Over or under 57.5 points?

Recent history points to over 57.5 points (65%).