Handball · Denmark Handboldligaen · 18/10, 20:00

Prediction: Aalborg Handbold vs Mors-Thy Handbold

Team pages: Aalborg Handbold · Mors-Thy Handbold

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.3Total

Aalborg Handbold33.3

Mors-Thy Handbold29

1X2

89% 11%

Aalborg Handbold Mors-Thy Handbold

Recent form · 10 last

Aalborg Handbold 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWLW

Mors-Thy Handbold 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Aalborg Handbold 6–0 Mors-Thy Handbold (6 last)

Mors-Thy Handbold35-37Aalborg Handbold
Aalborg Handbold40-21Mors-Thy Handbold
Aalborg Handbold33-26Mors-Thy Handbold
Mors-Thy Handbold27-33Aalborg Handbold
Aalborg Handbold34-27Mors-Thy Handbold
Mors-Thy Handbold28-32Aalborg Handbold

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aalborg Handbold 1616 · Mors-Thy Handbold 1431

	Aalborg Handbold	Mors-Thy Handbold
Our model	81%	19%
Market	90%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 62.3 points · Bet365 line 64.5 · -2.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.3Aalborg Handbold 33.3 · Mors-Thy Handbold 29

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aalborg Handbold (rating 1616 vs 1431).
Aalborg Handbold is a clear favourite (89% market).
H2H favours Aalborg Handbold: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aalborg Handbold	Mors-Thy Handbold
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.1 / 31.1	29.6 / 32.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.8 / 32	28 / 31.6
Est. result	33	29

Est. total62.3

Line O/U64.5

Diff.2.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.04

X22.00

218.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.88

2 (+7.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.88

Under 64.51.88

Diff.: 1.85 · Est. total: 62.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Bet365 1.04
X	22.00 → 22.00	Bet365 22.00
2	18.00 → 18.00	Bet365 18.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:29 +47’	1.04	22.00	18.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aalborg Handbold 6–0–0 Mors-Thy Handbold

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	35-37	Aalborg Handbold
20/05/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Aalborg Handbold	40-21	Mors-Thy Handbold
14/03/26 Denmark Handboldligaen	Aalborg Handbold	33-26	Mors-Thy Handbold
08/11/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	27-33	Aalborg Handbold
21/05/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Aalborg Handbold	34-27	Mors-Thy Handbold
04/05/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Mors-Thy Handbold	28-32	Aalborg Handbold

Standings · Denmark Handboldligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GOG	9	8	1	0	313	262	17
2	Ribe Esbjerg HH	9	7	1	1	303	279	15
3	Aalborg Handbold	9	6	1	2	286	280	13
4	Skjern Handbold	9	6	0	3	304	279	12
5	Fredericia HK	9	5	0	4	270	247	10
6	SonderjyskE	9	5	0	4	284	278	10
7	Skanderborg Handbold	9	5	0	4	302	298	10
8	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	9	4	1	4	283	287	9
9	Team Tvis Holstebro	9	3	1	5	278	284	7
10	Nordsjaelland Handbold	9	3	1	5	265	277	7
11	Mors-Thy Handbold	9	3	0	6	267	290	6
12	KIF Kolding Kbh.	9	2	1	6	282	310	5
13	TMS Ringsted	9	1	1	7	276	311	3
14	Skive FH	9	1	0	8	299	330	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aalborg Handbold	Mors-Thy Handbold
KIF Kolding Kbh.	37-32 W	34-31 W
GOG	27-39 L	29-32 L
TMS Ringsted	36-30 W	32-28 W
Nordsjaelland Handbold	34-29 W	21-28 L
Skjern Handbold	33-30 W	32-35 L
SonderjyskE	32-28 W	24-34 L
Skanderborg Handbold	35-31 W	29-38 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Aalborg Handbold (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aalborg Handbold

WWWLWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark Handboldligaen	37-32	W
03/10	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	27-39	L
26/09	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	36-30	W
20/09	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	34-29	W
12/09	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Denmark Handboldligaen	30-30	D
05/09	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	33-30	W
02/09	Fredericia HK Denmark Handboldligaen	26-33	L
30/08	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	31-29	W
26/08	SonderjyskE Denmark Handboldligaen	32-28	W
04/06	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	35-31	W

Mors-Thy Handbold

LLWLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	SonderjyskE Denmark Handboldligaen	24-34	L
03/10	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	21-28	L
26/09	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	29-38	L
19/09	TMS Ringsted Denmark Handboldligaen	32-28	W
11/09	Skive FH Denmark Handboldligaen	34-30	W
06/09	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	29-32	L
02/09	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-35	L
30/08	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark Handboldligaen	34-31	W
26/08	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	32-34	L
04/06	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	29-35	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aalborg Handbold vs Mors-Thy Handbold?

Our model gives 89% to Aalborg Handbold.

How many points are expected in Aalborg Handbold vs Mors-Thy Handbold?

The model estimates 62.3 total points (Aalborg Handbold 33.3 · Mors-Thy Handbold 29).