Handball · France Starligue · 19/09, 19:00

Prediction: Cesson Rennes vs Pays d'Aix UC

Team pages: Cesson Rennes · Pays d'Aix UC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.7Total

Cesson Rennes31.5

Pays d'Aix UC32.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

54% 46%

Cesson Rennes Pays d'Aix UC

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 60.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

Cesson Rennes 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLLL

Pays d'Aix UC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Cesson Rennes 1–5 Pays d'Aix UC (6 last)

Pays d'Aix UC35-28Cesson Rennes
Cesson Rennes31-25Pays d'Aix UC
Pays d'Aix UC29-24Cesson Rennes
Cesson Rennes28-32Pays d'Aix UC
Cesson Rennes29-30Pays d'Aix UC
Pays d'Aix UC34-32Cesson Rennes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cesson Rennes 1460 · Pays d'Aix UC 1503

	Cesson Rennes	Pays d'Aix UC
Our model	54%	46%
Market	48%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 63.7 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · +3.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.7Cesson Rennes 31.5 · Pays d'Aix UC 32.2

Over / Under 60.5Over · 75%recent trend · ~63.9 pts · strength 3

Match keys

H2H favours Pays d'Aix UC: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Cesson Rennes	Pays d'Aix UC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.6 / 32.1	32.2 / 32.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 33.4	33.8 / 33.6
Est. result	32	32

Est. total63.7

Line O/U60.5

Diff.3.2

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.95

X8.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.88

Under 60.51.88

Diff.: 3.15 · Est. total: 63.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +2’	1.95	8.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cesson Rennes 1–0–5 Pays d'Aix UC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	35-28	Cesson Rennes
19/09/25 France Starligue	Cesson Rennes	31-25	Pays d'Aix UC
06/03/25 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	29-24	Cesson Rennes
13/09/24 France Starligue	Cesson Rennes	28-32	Pays d'Aix UC
02/05/24 France Starligue	Cesson Rennes	29-30	Pays d'Aix UC
20/12/23 France Starligue	Pays d'Aix UC	34-32	Cesson Rennes

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montpellier	2	2	0	79	55	4
2	Nantes	2	2	0	76	56	4
3	PSG Handball	2	2	0	62	53	4
4	USM Saran	2	2	0	57	53	4
5	Caen Handball	2	2	0	58	55	4
6	Limoges HB 87	2	1	1	64	61	2
7	Pays d'Aix UC	2	1	1	62	70	2
8	USAM Nimes	2	1	1	67	70	2
9	Chartres Metropole HB 28	2	1	1	57	71	2
10	Selestat Alsace HB	2	1	1	65	66	2
11	Saint Raphael	2	1	1	57	61	2
12	Toulouse	2	0	2	56	59	0
13	Dunkerque	2	0	2	49	52	0
14	Chambery Savoie	2	0	2	61	65	0
15	Cesson Rennes	2	0	2	56	64	0
16	Tremblay	2	0	2	58	73	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cesson Rennes	Pays d'Aix UC
USAM Nimes	32-34 L	37-35 W
Toulouse	28-31 L	38-31 W
Nantes	26-35 L	28-38 L
Selestat Alsace HB	31-37 L	34-32 W
Montpellier	34-36 L	33-29 W
Istres Provence	31-30 W	31-35 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pays d'Aix UC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cesson Rennes

WWLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	PSG Handball France Starligue	24-30	L
04/09	USAM Nimes France Starligue	32-34	L
06/06	Toulouse France Starligue	28-31	L
03/06	Nantes France Starligue	26-35	L
27/05	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	31-37	L
08/05	Montpellier France Starligue	34-36	L
30/04	Istres Provence France Starligue	31-30	W
24/04	PSG Handball France Starligue	31-34	L
16/04	Dunkerque France Starligue	30-22	W
12/04	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	39-32	W

Pays d'Aix UC

WLWLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	Nantes France Starligue	28-38	L
05/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	34-32	W
06/06	Dijon France Starligue	38-32	W
02/06	Istres Provence France Starligue	31-35	L
29/05	Toulouse France Starligue	38-31	W
09/05	Tremblay France Starligue	30-31	L
02/05	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	27-30	L
24/04	Montpellier France Starligue	33-29	W
17/04	Saint Raphael France Starligue	26-31	L
10/04	USAM Nimes France Starligue	37-35	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cesson Rennes vs Pays d'Aix UC?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Cesson Rennes 54% · Pays d'Aix UC 46%).

How many points are expected in Cesson Rennes vs Pays d'Aix UC?

The model estimates 63.7 total points (Cesson Rennes 31.5 · Pays d'Aix UC 32.2).

Over or under 60.5 points?

Recent history points to over 60.5 points (75%).