Handball · France Starligue · 17/09, 20:30
Prediction: Toulouse vs Selestat Alsace HB
Team pages: Selestat Alsace HB
Prediction summary
Estimated points
60.7Total
Toulouse30.9
Selestat Alsace HB29.8
1X2
Toulouse
Selestat Alsace HB
Recent form · 10 last
Toulouse
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Selestat Alsace HB
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toulouse
6–0
Selestat Alsace HB
(6 last)
- Toulouse38-32Selestat Alsace HB
- Selestat Alsace HB26-28Toulouse
- Selestat Alsace HB22-33Toulouse
- Toulouse37-24Selestat Alsace HB
- Selestat Alsace HB26-32Toulouse
- Toulouse32-26Selestat Alsace HB
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toulouse 1517 · Selestat Alsace HB 1467
| Toulouse | Selestat Alsace HB | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 66% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
60.7 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points60.7Toulouse 30.9 · Selestat Alsace HB 29.8
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toulouse (rating 1517 vs 1467).
- Toulouse is a clear favourite (71% market).
- H2H favours Toulouse: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Toulouse | Selestat Alsace HB | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 30.4 / 30.7 | 30.5 / 31.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 29.2 / 30.8 | 32.8 / 30.8 |
| Est. result | 31 | 30 |
Est. total60.7
Line O/U61.5
Diff.0.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toulouse 6–0–0 Selestat Alsace HB
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/26 France Starligue | Toulouse | 38-32 | Selestat Alsace HB |
| 24/10/25 France Starligue | Selestat Alsace HB | 26-28 | Toulouse |
| 21/04/23 France Starligue | Selestat Alsace HB | 22-33 | Toulouse |
| 27/10/22 France Starligue | Toulouse | 37-24 | Selestat Alsace HB |
| 19/04/17 France Starligue | Selestat Alsace HB | 26-32 | Toulouse |
| 16/11/16 France Starligue | Toulouse | 32-26 | Selestat Alsace HB |
Standings · France Starligue
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montpellier | 2 | 2 | 0 | 79 | 55 | 4 |
| 2 | Nantes | 2 | 2 | 0 | 76 | 56 | 4 |
| 3 | PSG Handball | 2 | 2 | 0 | 62 | 53 | 4 |
| 4 | USM Saran | 2 | 2 | 0 | 57 | 53 | 4 |
| 5 | Caen Handball | 2 | 2 | 0 | 58 | 55 | 4 |
| 6 | Limoges HB 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 64 | 61 | 2 |
| 7 | Pays d'Aix UC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 70 | 2 |
| 8 | USAM Nimes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 67 | 70 | 2 |
| 9 | Chartres Metropole HB 28 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 57 | 71 | 2 |
| 10 | Selestat Alsace HB | 2 | 1 | 1 | 65 | 66 | 2 |
| 11 | Saint Raphael | 2 | 1 | 1 | 57 | 61 | 2 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 2 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 59 | 0 |
| 13 | Dunkerque | 2 | 0 | 2 | 49 | 52 | 0 |
| 14 | Chambery Savoie | 2 | 0 | 2 | 61 | 65 | 0 |
| 15 | Cesson Rennes | 2 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 64 | 0 |
| 16 | Tremblay | 2 | 0 | 2 | 58 | 73 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toulouse | Selestat Alsace HB |
|---|---|---|
| Cesson Rennes | 31-28 W | 37-31 W |
| Pays d'Aix UC | 31-38 L | 32-34 L |
| Saint Raphael | 27-36 L | 28-31 L |
| Tremblay | 40-35 W | 34-38 L |
| USAM Nimes | 39-28 W | 33-28 W |
| Dijon | 27-24 W | 32-27 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Selestat Alsace HB (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toulouse
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Caen Handball France Starligue |
31-32 | L |
| 05/09 | USM Saran France Starligue |
25-27 | L |
| 06/06 | Cesson Rennes France Starligue |
31-28 | W |
| 03/06 | Montpellier France Starligue |
28-29 | L |
| 29/05 | Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue |
31-38 | L |
| 08/05 | Saint Raphael France Starligue |
27-36 | L |
| 01/05 | Tremblay France Starligue |
40-35 | W |
| 25/04 | USAM Nimes France Starligue |
39-28 | W |
| 17/04 | Dijon France Starligue |
27-24 | W |
| 12/04 | Nantes France Starligue |
25-30 | L |
Selestat Alsace HB
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Chambery Savoie France Starligue |
33-32 | W |
| 05/09 | Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue |
32-34 | L |
| 06/06 | Dunkerque France Starligue |
30-30 | D |
| 02/06 | Dijon France Starligue |
32-27 | W |
| 27/05 | Cesson Rennes France Starligue |
37-31 | W |
| 10/05 | PSG Handball France Starligue |
23-34 | L |
| 01/05 | USAM Nimes France Starligue |
33-28 | W |
| 26/04 | Saint Raphael France Starligue |
28-31 | L |
| 17/04 | Tremblay France Starligue |
34-38 | L |
| 10/04 | Istres Provence France Starligue |
23-27 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toulouse vs Selestat Alsace HB?
Our model gives 71% to Toulouse.
How many points are expected in Toulouse vs Selestat Alsace HB?
The model estimates 60.7 total points (Toulouse 30.9 · Selestat Alsace HB 29.8).