Handball · France Starligue · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: Montpellier vs Nantes

Team pages: Montpellier · Nantes

Prediction summary

Estimated points

64Total

Montpellier31.3

Nantes32.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

46% 54%

Montpellier Nantes

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Montpellier 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWWWW

Nantes 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Montpellier 1–1–4 Nantes (6 last)

Montpellier29-33Nantes
Montpellier27-24Nantes
Nantes35-32Montpellier
Montpellier31-31Nantes
Montpellier27-29Nantes
Nantes29-26Montpellier

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Montpellier 1529 · Nantes 1634

	Montpellier	Nantes
Our model	45%	55%
Market	41%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 64 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · +2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points64Montpellier 31.3 · Nantes 32.7

Match keys

H2H favours Nantes: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Montpellier	Nantes
Points F\|A (Last 10)	35 / 30.8	37.2 / 30.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	35.4 / 30.2	36.6 / 30.2
Est. result	31	33

Est. total64

Line O/U61.5

Diff.2.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.30

X8.00

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.88

Under 61.51.88

Diff.: 5.15 · Est. total: 66.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +17’	2.30	8.00	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Montpellier 1–1–4 Nantes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Club Friendlies	Montpellier	29-33	Nantes
23/05/26 France Coupe de la Ligue	Montpellier	27-24	Nantes
19/04/26 France Starligue	Nantes	35-32	Montpellier
18/10/25 France Starligue	Montpellier	31-31	Nantes
15/02/25 France Starligue	Montpellier	27-29	Nantes
29/09/24 France Starligue	Nantes	29-26	Montpellier

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montpellier	2	2	0	79	55	4
2	Nantes	2	2	0	76	56	4
3	PSG Handball	2	2	0	62	53	4
4	USM Saran	2	2	0	57	53	4
5	Caen Handball	2	2	0	58	55	4
6	Selestat Alsace HB	3	2	1	90	90	4
7	Limoges HB 87	2	1	1	64	61	2
8	USAM Nimes	2	1	1	67	70	2
9	Pays d'Aix UC	2	1	1	62	70	2
10	Chartres Metropole HB 28	2	1	1	57	71	2
11	Saint Raphael	2	1	1	57	61	2
12	Dunkerque	2	0	2	49	52	0
13	Toulouse	3	0	3	80	84	0
14	Chambery Savoie	2	0	2	61	65	0
15	Cesson Rennes	2	0	2	56	64	0
16	Tremblay	2	0	2	58	73	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Montpellier	Nantes
Toulouse	29-28 W	30-25 W
Cesson Rennes	36-34 W	35-26 W
Dijon	38-28 W	42-32 W
Pays d'Aix UC	29-33 L	38-28 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nantes (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Montpellier

WLLWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	USAM Nimes France Starligue	38-33	W
04/09	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	41-22	W
06/06	USAM Nimes France Starligue	34-30	W
03/06	Toulouse France Starligue	29-28	W
26/05	Saint Raphael France Starligue	35-38	L
08/05	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	36-34	W
01/05	Dijon France Starligue	38-28	W
24/04	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	29-33	L
19/04	Nantes France Starligue	32-35	L
11/04	Dunkerque France Starligue	38-27	W

Nantes

WWWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	38-28	W
05/09	Tremblay France Starligue	38-28	W
06/06	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	41-35	W
03/06	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	35-26	W
27/05	PSG Handball France Starligue	31-34	L
09/05	Dijon France Starligue	42-32	W
03/05	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	42-32	W
24/04	Istres Provence France Starligue	40-31	W
19/04	Montpellier France Starligue	35-32	W
12/04	Toulouse France Starligue	30-25	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Montpellier vs Nantes?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Montpellier 46% · Nantes 54%).

How many points are expected in Montpellier vs Nantes?

The model estimates 64 total points (Montpellier 31.3 · Nantes 32.7).