Handball · France Starligue · 18/09, 20:00

Prediction: Tremblay vs Saint Raphael

Team pages: Tremblay · Saint Raphael

Prediction summary

Estimated points

67.1Total

Tremblay31.9

Saint Raphael35.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

51% 49%

Tremblay Saint Raphael

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Tremblay 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLLLL

Saint Raphael 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Tremblay 3–3 Saint Raphael (6 last)

Tremblay36-44Saint Raphael
Saint Raphael30-36Tremblay
Tremblay39-33Saint Raphael
Saint Raphael31-32Tremblay
Tremblay35-36Saint Raphael
Saint Raphael27-26Tremblay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tremblay 1476 · Saint Raphael 1558

	Tremblay	Saint Raphael
Our model	48%	52%
Market	47%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 67.1 points · Bet365 line 67.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points67.1Tremblay 31.9 · Saint Raphael 35.2

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Tremblay	Saint Raphael
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.1 / 36.4	34 / 30.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32 / 37.4	35.2 / 32.4
Est. result	32	35

Est. total67.1

Line O/U67.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.00

X8.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.78

Line ⓘ

Over 67.51.88

Under 67.51.88

Diff.: 0.7 · Est. total: 66.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:41 +16’	2.00	8.00	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tremblay 3–0–3 Saint Raphael

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/06/26 France Starligue	Tremblay	36-44	Saint Raphael
26/09/25 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	30-36	Tremblay
03/05/25 France Starligue	Tremblay	39-33	Saint Raphael
13/12/24 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	31-32	Tremblay
12/12/23 France Cup	Tremblay	35-36	Saint Raphael
20/05/21 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	27-26	Tremblay

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montpellier	2	2	0	79	55	4
2	Nantes	2	2	0	76	56	4
3	PSG Handball	2	2	0	62	53	4
4	USM Saran	2	2	0	57	53	4
5	Caen Handball	2	2	0	58	55	4
6	Limoges HB 87	2	1	1	64	61	2
7	Pays d'Aix UC	2	1	1	62	70	2
8	USAM Nimes	2	1	1	67	70	2
9	Chartres Metropole HB 28	2	1	1	57	71	2
10	Selestat Alsace HB	2	1	1	65	66	2
11	Saint Raphael	2	1	1	57	61	2
12	Toulouse	2	0	2	56	59	0
13	Dunkerque	2	0	2	49	52	0
14	Chambery Savoie	2	0	2	61	65	0
15	Cesson Rennes	2	0	2	56	64	0
16	Tremblay	2	0	2	58	73	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tremblay	Saint Raphael
Chartres Metropole HB 28	30-35 L	37-30 W
PSG Handball	31-35 L	34-36 L
Pays d'Aix UC	31-30 W	31-26 W
Toulouse	35-40 L	36-27 W
Limoges HB 87	34-37 L	31-36 L
Selestat Alsace HB	38-34 W	31-28 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Saint Raphael (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tremblay

LWLLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/09	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	30-35	L
05/09	Nantes France Starligue	28-38	L
06/06	PSG Handball France Starligue	31-35	L
03/06	Saint Raphael France Starligue	36-44	L
26/05	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	35-35	D
09/05	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	31-30	W
01/05	Toulouse France Starligue	35-40	L
24/04	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	34-37	L
17/04	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	38-34	W
10/04	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	33-36	L

Saint Raphael

LWWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/09	Dunkerque France Starligue	26-25	W
04/09	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	31-36	L
06/06	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	37-30	W
03/06	Tremblay France Starligue	44-36	W
26/05	Montpellier France Starligue	38-35	W
08/05	Toulouse France Starligue	36-27	W
01/05	Dunkerque France Starligue	32-22	W
26/04	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	31-28	W
17/04	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	31-26	W
12/04	PSG Handball France Starligue	34-36	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tremblay vs Saint Raphael?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Tremblay 51% · Saint Raphael 49%).

How many points are expected in Tremblay vs Saint Raphael?

The model estimates 67.1 total points (Tremblay 31.9 · Saint Raphael 35.2).