Handball · France Starligue · 27/09, 17:00

Prediction: Nantes vs Toulouse

Team pages: Nantes · Toulouse

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63Total

Nantes33.3

Toulouse29.7

1X2

85% 15%

Nantes Toulouse

Recent form · 10 last

Nantes 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Toulouse 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nantes 5–1 Toulouse (6 last)

Toulouse25-30Nantes
Nantes28-22Toulouse
Nantes34-29Toulouse
Toulouse35-29Nantes
Nantes40-30Toulouse
Toulouse26-28Nantes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nantes 1650 · Toulouse 1493

	Nantes	Toulouse
Our model	79%	21%
Market	83%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 63 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63Nantes 33.3 · Toulouse 29.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantes (rating 1650 vs 1493).
Nantes is a clear favourite (85% market).
H2H favours Nantes: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Nantes	Toulouse
Points F\|A (Last 10)	37.8 / 30.9	30.3 / 30.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	37.6 / 29.6	27.8 / 28.2
Est. result	33	30

Est. total63

Line O/U62.5

Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.14

X14.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.88

2 (+5.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 2.1 · Est. total: 64.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	14.00 → 14.00	Bet365 14.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:43 +7’	1.14	14.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nantes 5–0–1 Toulouse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 France Starligue	Toulouse	25-30	Nantes
14/09/25 France Starligue	Nantes	28-22	Toulouse
06/04/25 France Starligue	Nantes	34-29	Toulouse
22/09/24 France Starligue	Toulouse	35-29	Nantes
24/03/24 France Starligue	Nantes	40-30	Toulouse
21/03/24 France Cup	Toulouse	26-28	Nantes

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nantes	3	3	0	112	87	6
2	PSG Handball	3	3	0	97	79	6
3	Limoges HB 87	3	2	1	102	84	4
4	Montpellier	3	2	1	110	91	4
5	USM Saran	3	2	1	88	85	4
6	USAM Nimes	3	2	1	99	101	4
7	Selestat Alsace HB	3	2	1	90	90	4
8	Caen Handball	3	2	1	81	93	4
9	Chartres Metropole HB 28	3	1	2	83	106	2
10	Tremblay	3	1	2	94	103	2
11	Cesson Rennes	3	1	2	85	92	2
12	Chambery Savoie	3	1	2	99	94	2
13	Pays d'Aix UC	3	1	2	90	99	2
14	Saint Raphael	3	1	2	87	97	2
15	Toulouse	3	0	3	80	84	0
16	Dunkerque	3	0	3	78	90	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nantes	Toulouse
Montpellier	36-31 W	28-29 L
Pays d'Aix UC	38-28 W	31-38 L
Tremblay	38-28 W	40-35 W
Cesson Rennes	35-26 W	31-28 W
Dijon	42-32 W	27-24 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nantes (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nantes

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	Montpellier France Starligue	36-31	W
12/09	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	38-28	W
05/09	Tremblay France Starligue	38-28	W
06/06	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	41-35	W
03/06	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	35-26	W
27/05	PSG Handball France Starligue	31-34	L
09/05	Dijon France Starligue	42-32	W
03/05	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	42-32	W
24/04	Istres Provence France Starligue	40-31	W
19/04	Montpellier France Starligue	35-32	W

Toulouse

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	24-25	L
11/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	31-32	L
05/09	USM Saran France Starligue	25-27	L
06/06	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	31-28	W
03/06	Montpellier France Starligue	28-29	L
29/05	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	31-38	L
08/05	Saint Raphael France Starligue	27-36	L
01/05	Tremblay France Starligue	40-35	W
25/04	USAM Nimes France Starligue	39-28	W
17/04	Dijon France Starligue	27-24	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nantes vs Toulouse?

Our model gives 85% to Nantes.

How many points are expected in Nantes vs Toulouse?

The model estimates 63 total points (Nantes 33.3 · Toulouse 29.7).