Handball · France Starligue · 25/09, 20:00

Prediction: USAM Nimes vs Dunkerque

Team pages: USAM Nimes · Dunkerque

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61Total

USAM Nimes30.9

Dunkerque30

1X2

71% 29%

USAM Nimes Dunkerque

Markets

Over 59.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

USAM Nimes 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLLWLW

Dunkerque 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLDLLL

Head-to-head

USAM Nimes 2–1–3 Dunkerque (6 last)

USAM Nimes31-31Dunkerque
Dunkerque29-27USAM Nimes
USAM Nimes29-23Dunkerque
Dunkerque29-24USAM Nimes
Dunkerque31-26USAM Nimes
USAM Nimes33-28Dunkerque

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USAM Nimes 1497 · Dunkerque 1474

	USAM Nimes	Dunkerque
Our model	63%	37%
Market	69%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 61 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +1.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61USAM Nimes 30.9 · Dunkerque 30

Over / Under 59.5Over · 75%recent trend · ~61.7 pts · strength 2

Match keys

USAM Nimes is a clear favourite (71% market).
H2H favours Dunkerque: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	USAM Nimes	Dunkerque
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.4 / 32.9	27.4 / 30.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32 / 33.6	28 / 31
Est. result	31	30

Est. total61

Line O/U59.5

Diff.1.5

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.37

X9.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.75

2 (+2.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.88

Under 59.51.88

Diff.: 1.8 · Est. total: 61.3

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.37▼	Bet365 1.37
X	9.00 → 9.50▲	Bet365 9.50
2	4.25 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:38 +11’	1.40	9.00	4.25
15:52 +2’	1.37▼	9.50▲	4.50▲
16:41 +17’	1.40▲	9.00▼	4.25▼
17:53 +5’	1.37▼	9.50▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · USAM Nimes 2–1–3 Dunkerque

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 France Starligue	USAM Nimes	31-31	Dunkerque
03/10/25 France Starligue	Dunkerque	29-27	USAM Nimes
25/04/25 France Starligue	USAM Nimes	29-23	Dunkerque
27/09/24 France Starligue	Dunkerque	29-24	USAM Nimes
18/04/24 France Starligue	Dunkerque	31-26	USAM Nimes
23/09/23 France Starligue	USAM Nimes	33-28	Dunkerque

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nantes	3	3	0	112	87	6
2	PSG Handball	3	3	0	97	79	6
3	Limoges HB 87	3	2	1	102	84	4
4	Montpellier	3	2	1	110	91	4
5	USM Saran	3	2	1	88	85	4
6	USAM Nimes	3	2	1	99	101	4
7	Selestat Alsace HB	3	2	1	90	90	4
8	Caen Handball	3	2	1	81	93	4
9	Chartres Metropole HB 28	3	1	2	83	106	2
10	Tremblay	3	1	2	94	103	2
11	Cesson Rennes	3	1	2	85	92	2
12	Chambery Savoie	3	1	2	99	94	2
13	Pays d'Aix UC	3	1	2	90	99	2
14	Saint Raphael	3	1	2	87	97	2
15	Toulouse	3	0	3	80	84	0
16	Dunkerque	3	0	3	78	90	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USAM Nimes	Dunkerque
Cesson Rennes	34-32 W	22-30 L
Chambery Savoie	31-31 D	29-38 L
Selestat Alsace HB	28-33 L	30-30 D
Istres Provence	36-27 W	31-29 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: USAM Nimes (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USAM Nimes

WLLDDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/09	USM Saran France Starligue	32-31	W
13/09	Montpellier France Starligue	33-38	L
04/09	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	34-32	W
06/06	Montpellier France Starligue	30-34	L
02/06	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	31-33	L
29/05	Dunkerque France Starligue	31-31	D
07/05	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	31-31	D
01/05	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	28-33	L
25/04	Toulouse France Starligue	28-39	L
19/04	Istres Provence France Starligue	36-27	W

Dunkerque

LLLWDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/09	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	29-38	L
11/09	Saint Raphael France Starligue	25-26	L
06/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	24-26	L
06/06	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	30-30	D
02/06	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	32-35	L
29/05	USAM Nimes France Starligue	31-31	D
07/05	Istres Provence France Starligue	31-29	W
01/05	Saint Raphael France Starligue	22-32	L
25/04	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	28-32	L
16/04	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	22-30	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USAM Nimes vs Dunkerque?

Our model gives 71% to USAM Nimes.

How many points are expected in USAM Nimes vs Dunkerque?

The model estimates 61 total points (USAM Nimes 30.9 · Dunkerque 30).

Over or under 59.5 points?

Recent history points to over 59.5 points (75%).