Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: VfL Waiblingen (W) vs HSG Freiburg (W)

Team pages: VfL Waiblingen (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.2Total

VfL Waiblingen (W)29.6

HSG Freiburg (W)29.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

65% 35%

VfL Waiblingen (W) HSG Freiburg (W)

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 55.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

VfL Waiblingen (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLLWLW

HSG Freiburg (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDLLLL

Head-to-head

VfL Waiblingen (W) 3–2–1 HSG Freiburg (W) (6 last)

VfL Waiblingen (W)29-29HSG Freiburg (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)29-27VfL Waiblingen (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)20-20VfL Waiblingen (W)
VfL Waiblingen (W)26-21HSG Freiburg (W)
VfL Waiblingen (W)37-22HSG Freiburg (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)26-29VfL Waiblingen (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VfL Waiblingen (W) 1491 · HSG Freiburg (W) 1516

	VfL Waiblingen (W)	HSG Freiburg (W)
Our model	56%	44%
Market	63%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 59.2 points · Bet365 line 55.5 · +3.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.2VfL Waiblingen (W) 29.6 · HSG Freiburg (W) 29.7

Match keys

H2H favours VfL Waiblingen (W): 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	VfL Waiblingen (W)	HSG Freiburg (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.9 / 29	30.8 / 29.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 30.8	28.2 / 33.2
Est. result	30	30

Est. total59.2

Line O/U55.5

Diff.3.7

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.42

X8.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.85

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 55.51.75

Under 55.51.95

Diff.: 3.7 · Est. total: 59.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:43 +9’	1.42	8.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VfL Waiblingen (W) 3–2–1 HSG Freiburg (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	VfL Waiblingen (W)	29-29	HSG Freiburg (W)
22/11/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	29-27	VfL Waiblingen (W)
24/02/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	20-20	VfL Waiblingen (W)
21/10/23 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	VfL Waiblingen (W)	26-21	HSG Freiburg (W)
20/02/21 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	VfL Waiblingen (W)	37-22	HSG Freiburg (W)
19/09/20 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	26-29	VfL Waiblingen (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HC Rodertal (W)	1	1	0	40	22	2
2	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	1	1	0	37	23	2
3	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	1	1	0	34	22	2
4	VfL Waiblingen (W)	1	1	0	32	26	2
5	Fuchse Berlin (W)	1	1	0	36	31	2
6	Bergischer HC (W)	1	1	0	27	24	2
6	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	1	1	0	27	24	2
8	HSG Freiburg (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Rostocker HC (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	1	0	1	24	27	0
10	TUS Lintfort (W)	1	0	1	24	27	0
12	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	1	0	1	31	36	0
13	SV Todesfelde (W)	1	0	1	26	32	0
14	SV Werder Bremen (W)	1	0	1	22	34	0
15	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	1	0	1	23	37	0
16	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	1	0	1	22	40	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VfL Waiblingen (W)	HSG Freiburg (W)
HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	22-28 L	25-32 L
SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	32-31 W	31-20 W
SV Werder Bremen (W)	26-30 L	36-29 W
Rostocker HC (W)	27-25 W	36-32 W
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	33-26 W	36-30 W
TUS Lintfort (W)	32-22 W	28-20 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VfL Waiblingen (W)

LWWDWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/08	SV Todesfelde (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-26	W
30/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-28	L
23/05	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-31	W
16/05	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-30	L
14/05	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-39	L
09/05	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-25	W
02/05	HSG Freiburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-29	D
25/04	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-26	W
18/04	TUS Lintfort (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-22	W
04/04	Bergischer HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-34	L

HSG Freiburg (W)

WWWWWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-40	L
23/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-34	L
17/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-31	L
09/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-32	L
02/05	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-29	D
25/04	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-29	W
18/04	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-32	W
04/04	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-20	W
28/03	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-30	W
21/03	TUS Lintfort (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	28-20	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VfL Waiblingen (W) vs HSG Freiburg (W)?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (VfL Waiblingen (W) 65% · HSG Freiburg (W) 35%).

How many points are expected in VfL Waiblingen (W) vs HSG Freiburg (W)?

The model estimates 59.2 total points (VfL Waiblingen (W) 29.6 · HSG Freiburg (W) 29.7).