Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 12/09, 18:30

Prediction: Bergischer HC (W) vs TUS Lintfort (W)

Team pages: Bergischer HC (W) · TUS Lintfort (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.1Total

Bergischer HC (W)30

TUS Lintfort (W)26.1

1X2

82% 18%

Bergischer HC (W) TUS Lintfort (W)

Markets

Over 53.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Bergischer HC (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLWD

TUS Lintfort (W) 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Bergischer HC (W) 2–2–0 TUS Lintfort (W) (4 last)

TUS Lintfort (W)24-24Bergischer HC (W)
Bergischer HC (W)32-20TUS Lintfort (W)
TUS Lintfort (W)30-30Bergischer HC (W)
Bergischer HC (W)26-22TUS Lintfort (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bergischer HC (W) 1443 · TUS Lintfort (W) 1380

	Bergischer HC (W)	TUS Lintfort (W)
Our model	68%	32%
Market	86%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 56.1 points · Bet365 line 53.5 · +2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.1Bergischer HC (W) 30 · TUS Lintfort (W) 26.1

Over / Under 53.5Over · 70%recent trend · ~56.1 pts · strength 3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bergischer HC (W) (rating 1443 vs 1380).
Bergischer HC (W) is a clear favourite (82% market).
H2H favours Bergischer HC (W): 2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bergischer HC (W)	TUS Lintfort (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	26.2 / 31.1	24 / 32.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.2 / 31	22.6 / 32.2
Est. result	30	26

Est. total56.1

Line O/U53.5

Diff.2.6

Over / Under70% / 30%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.05

X15.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.85

2 (+7.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 53.51.95

Under 53.51.75

Diff.: 3.35 · Est. total: 56.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.05 → 1.14▲	Bet365 1.14
X	15.00 → 11.00▼	Bet365 11.00
2	11.00 → 7.00▼	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:50 +8’	1.05	15.00	11.00
13:01 +1’	1.14▲	11.00▼	7.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bergischer HC (W) 2–2–0 TUS Lintfort (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	TUS Lintfort (W)	24-24	Bergischer HC (W)
13/09/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Bergischer HC (W)	32-20	TUS Lintfort (W)
24/05/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	TUS Lintfort (W)	30-30	Bergischer HC (W)
18/01/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Bergischer HC (W)	26-22	TUS Lintfort (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	2	2	0	0	71	54	4
1	VfL Waiblingen (W)	2	2	0	0	71	54	4
3	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	2	2	0	0	67	51	4
4	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	2	2	0	0	61	56	4
5	Fuchse Berlin (W)	2	1	1	0	65	60	3
6	Bergischer HC (W)	2	1	1	0	56	53	3
7	HC Rodertal (W)	2	1	0	1	69	55	2
8	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	2	1	0	1	55	42	2
9	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	2	1	0	1	62	60	2
10	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	2	1	0	1	52	59	2
11	Rostocker HC (W)	1	0	0	1	24	31	0
12	SV Todesfelde (W)	2	0	0	2	57	66	0
13	HSG Freiburg (W)	1	0	0	1	28	39	0
14	SV Werder Bremen (W)	2	0	0	2	54	68	0
15	TUS Lintfort (W)	2	0	0	2	39	58	0
16	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	2	0	0	2	44	69	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bergischer HC (W)	TUS Lintfort (W)
ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	27-24 W	15-31 L
SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	26-37 L	27-37 L
HC Leipzig (W)	27-34 L	22-27 L
HC Rodertal (W)	27-30 L	25-39 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	29-34 L	24-31 L
HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	19-32 L	24-27 L
VfL Waiblingen (W)	34-27 W	22-32 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Bergischer HC (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bergischer HC (W)

WLLLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	Fuchse Berlin (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-29	D
29/08	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-24	W
30/05	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-31	L
23/05	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-37	L
17/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-34	L
09/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-30	L
02/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-33	L
25/04	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-34	L
17/04	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	19-32	L
04/04	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-27	W

TUS Lintfort (W)

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	15-31	L
29/08	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-27	L
30/05	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-37	L
24/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-27	L
16/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-39	L
09/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-31	L
03/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-31	L
26/04	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-32	L
18/04	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-32	L
05/04	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-37	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bergischer HC (W) vs TUS Lintfort (W)?

Our model gives 82% to Bergischer HC (W).

How many points are expected in Bergischer HC (W) vs TUS Lintfort (W)?

The model estimates 56.1 total points (Bergischer HC (W) 30 · TUS Lintfort (W) 26.1).

Over or under 53.5 points?

Recent history points to over 53.5 points (70%).