Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 12/09, 19:00

Prediction: SG 09 Kirchhof (W) vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Team pages: SG 09 Kirchhof (W) · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.7Total

SG 09 Kirchhof (W)27.1

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)29.6

1X2

28% 72%

SG 09 Kirchhof (W) 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Recent form · 10 last

SG 09 Kirchhof (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLW

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SG 09 Kirchhof (W) 0–1–5 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) (6 last)

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)24-19SG 09 Kirchhof (W)
SG 09 Kirchhof (W)32-361. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)31-23SG 09 Kirchhof (W)
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)33-29SG 09 Kirchhof (W)
SG 09 Kirchhof (W)29-291. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)27-26SG 09 Kirchhof (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SG 09 Kirchhof (W) 1401 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 1496

	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
Our model	46%	54%
Market	15%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 56.7 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.7SG 09 Kirchhof (W) 27.1 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 29.6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) (rating 1401 vs 1496).
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W): 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	24.2 / 31.3	28.8 / 29.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.6 / 32.2	28.8 / 29.8
Est. result	27	30

Est. total56.7

Line O/U57.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

16.00

X11.00

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+5.5)1.75

2 (-5.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.80

Under 57.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · Est. total: 56.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:34 +31’	6.00	11.00	1.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SG 09 Kirchhof (W) 0–1–5 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Club Friendlies Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	24-19	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)
21/03/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	32-36	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
25/10/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	31-23	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)
16/03/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	33-29	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)
28/10/23 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	29-29	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
25/08/23 Club Friendlies Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	27-26	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	2	2	0	0	71	54	4
1	VfL Waiblingen (W)	2	2	0	0	71	54	4
3	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	2	2	0	0	67	51	4
4	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	2	2	0	0	61	56	4
5	Fuchse Berlin (W)	2	1	1	0	65	60	3
6	Bergischer HC (W)	2	1	1	0	56	53	3
7	HC Rodertal (W)	2	1	0	1	69	55	2
8	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	2	1	0	1	55	42	2
9	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	2	1	0	1	62	60	2
10	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	2	1	0	1	52	59	2
11	Rostocker HC (W)	1	0	0	1	24	31	0
12	SV Todesfelde (W)	2	0	0	2	57	66	0
13	HSG Freiburg (W)	1	0	0	1	28	39	0
14	SV Werder Bremen (W)	2	0	0	2	54	68	0
15	TUS Lintfort (W)	2	0	0	2	39	58	0
16	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	2	0	0	2	44	69	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	29-22 W	28-29 L
VfL Waiblingen (W)	31-32 L	26-33 L
SV Werder Bremen (W)	29-34 L	34-22 W
Rostocker HC (W)	26-28 L	32-27 W
HC Leipzig (W)	16-22 L	24-37 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SG 09 Kirchhof (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SG 09 Kirchhof (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/09	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-22	W
29/08	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	23-37	L
30/05	Fuchse Berlin (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-36	L
23/05	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-32	L
17/05	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	23-34	L
09/05	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-34	L
02/05	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	18-37	L
25/04	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-28	L
19/04	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	16-22	L
04/04	HSG Freiburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	20-31	L

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

WWLLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-29	W
29/08	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-22	W
30/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-37	L
23/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-31	L
16/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-30	L
09/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	28-29	L
02/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-27	L
25/04	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-33	L
18/04	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-30	W
04/04	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SG 09 Kirchhof (W) vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)?

Our model gives 72% to 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W).

How many points are expected in SG 09 Kirchhof (W) vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)?

The model estimates 56.7 total points (SG 09 Kirchhof (W) 27.1 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 29.6).