Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 19/09, 18:00

Prediction: HSG Freiburg (W) vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)

Team pages: HSG Freiburg (W) · Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.2Total

HSG Freiburg (W)30.7

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)30.5

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

53% 47%

HSG Freiburg (W) Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

HSG Freiburg (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLLLLL

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLLLD

Head-to-head

HSG Freiburg (W) 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) (2 last)

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)31-29HSG Freiburg (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)31-30Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSG Freiburg (W) 1475 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) 1495

	HSG Freiburg (W)	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)
Our model	57%	43%
Market	45%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 61.2 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -1.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.2HSG Freiburg (W) 30.7 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) 30.5

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSG Freiburg (W)	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.4 / 32.5	29.4 / 30.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27.4 / 36.6	28 / 32.4
Est. result	31	31

Est. total61.2

Line O/U62.5

Diff.1.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.00

X8.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.72

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.75

Under 62.51.95

Diff.: 1.65 · Est. total: 60.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:48 +10’	2.00	8.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSG Freiburg (W) 1–0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	31-29	HSG Freiburg (W)
11/01/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	31-30	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	3	3	0	0	110	76	6
2	VfL Waiblingen (W)	3	3	0	0	102	75	6
3	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	3	3	0	0	98	81	6
4	Fuchse Berlin (W)	3	2	1	0	105	80	5
5	Bergischer HC (W)	3	2	1	0	91	84	5
6	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	3	2	0	1	91	69	4
7	HC Rodertal (W)	3	2	0	1	101	81	4
8	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	3	2	0	1	87	88	4
9	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	3	1	0	2	83	91	2
9	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	3	1	0	2	82	90	2
11	SV Todesfelde (W)	3	0	1	2	92	101	1
12	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	3	0	1	2	79	104	1
13	SV Werder Bremen (W)	3	0	0	3	81	104	0
13	TUS Lintfort (W)	3	0	0	3	70	93	0
15	Rostocker HC (W)	2	0	0	2	44	71	0
16	HSG Freiburg (W)	2	0	0	2	50	78	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSG Freiburg (W)	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)
HC Rodertal (W)	25-40 L	22-40 L
SV Werder Bremen (W)	36-29 W	32-33 L
Rostocker HC (W)	36-32 W	29-25 W
SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	31-20 W	22-29 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HSG Freiburg (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSG Freiburg (W)

WWWDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-39	L
05/09	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	28-39	L
30/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-40	L
23/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-34	L
17/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-31	L
09/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-32	L
02/05	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-29	D
25/04	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-29	W
18/04	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-32	W
04/04	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-20	W

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)

LWWWWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	SV Todesfelde (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	35-35	D
06/09	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-29	L
29/08	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-40	L
30/05	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-33	L
23/05	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-25	W
17/05	HSG Freiburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-29	W
09/05	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-28	W
03/05	TUS Lintfort (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-24	W
25/04	Bergischer HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-29	W
18/04	Fuchse Berlin (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-32	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSG Freiburg (W) vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HSG Freiburg (W) 53% · Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) 47%).

How many points are expected in HSG Freiburg (W) vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)?

The model estimates 61.2 total points (HSG Freiburg (W) 30.7 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) 30.5).