Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 05/09, 19:00

Prediction: Fuchse Berlin (W) vs Bergischer HC (W)

Team pages: Fuchse Berlin (W) · Bergischer HC (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

57.3Total

Fuchse Berlin (W)31.9

Bergischer HC (W)25.4

1X2

70% 30%

Fuchse Berlin (W) Bergischer HC (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Fuchse Berlin (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWWW

Bergischer HC (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Fuchse Berlin (W) 1–3 Bergischer HC (W) (4 last)

Bergischer HC (W)27-23Fuchse Berlin (W)
Fuchse Berlin (W)31-23Bergischer HC (W)
Bergischer HC (W)31-26Fuchse Berlin (W)
Fuchse Berlin (W)21-22Bergischer HC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fuchse Berlin (W) 1559 · Bergischer HC (W) 1443

	Fuchse Berlin (W)	Bergischer HC (W)
Our model	74%	26%
Market	60%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 57.3 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · -1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points57.3Fuchse Berlin (W) 31.9 · Bergischer HC (W) 25.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fuchse Berlin (W) (rating 1559 vs 1443).
Fuchse Berlin (W) is a clear favourite (70% market).
H2H favours Bergischer HC (W): 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Fuchse Berlin (W)	Bergischer HC (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.3 / 26	26.3 / 31.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32 / 25.6	25.8 / 31.2
Est. result	32	25

Est. total57.3

Line O/U58.5

Diff.1.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.50

X8.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.95

2 (+2.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.85

Under 58.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · Est. total: 58.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:48 +7’	1.50	8.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fuchse Berlin (W) 1–0–3 Bergischer HC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Bergischer HC (W)	27-23	Fuchse Berlin (W)
30/08/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Fuchse Berlin (W)	31-23	Bergischer HC (W)
25/01/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Bergischer HC (W)	31-26	Fuchse Berlin (W)
11/09/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Fuchse Berlin (W)	21-22	Bergischer HC (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HC Rodertal (W)	1	1	0	40	22	2
2	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	1	1	0	37	23	2
3	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	1	1	0	34	22	2
4	VfL Waiblingen (W)	1	1	0	32	26	2
5	Fuchse Berlin (W)	1	1	0	36	31	2
6	Bergischer HC (W)	1	1	0	27	24	2
6	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	1	1	0	27	24	2
8	HSG Freiburg (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Rostocker HC (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	1	0	1	24	27	0
10	TUS Lintfort (W)	1	0	1	24	27	0
12	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	1	0	1	31	36	0
13	SV Todesfelde (W)	1	0	1	26	32	0
14	SV Werder Bremen (W)	1	0	1	22	34	0
15	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	1	0	1	23	37	0
16	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	1	0	1	22	40	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fuchse Berlin (W)	Bergischer HC (W)
HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	36-31 W	22-31 L
SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	30-32 L	26-37 L
HC Leipzig (W)	25-21 W	27-34 L
HC Rodertal (W)	31-21 W	27-30 L
ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	39-32 W	27-24 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	32-29 W	29-34 L
HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	35-22 W	19-32 L
VfL Waiblingen (W)	36-28 W	34-27 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Fuchse Berlin (W) (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fuchse Berlin (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/08	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-31	W
30/05	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-27	W
23/05	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-17	W
16/05	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	30-32	L
09/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-21	W
02/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-21	W
25/04	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	39-32	W
18/04	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-29	W
04/04	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	35-22	W
28/03	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-28	W

Bergischer HC (W)

DWLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/08	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-24	W
30/05	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-31	L
23/05	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-37	L
17/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-34	L
09/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-30	L
02/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-33	L
25/04	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-34	L
17/04	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	19-32	L
04/04	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-27	W
28/03	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	30-30	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fuchse Berlin (W) vs Bergischer HC (W)?

Our model gives 70% to Fuchse Berlin (W).

How many points are expected in Fuchse Berlin (W) vs Bergischer HC (W)?

The model estimates 57.3 total points (Fuchse Berlin (W) 31.9 · Bergischer HC (W) 25.4).