Handball · Austria HLA · 26/09, 19:00

Prediction: UHK Krems vs Alpla HC Hard

Team pages: UHK Krems · Alpla HC Hard

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.5Total

UHK Krems30.7

Alpla HC Hard29.8

1X2

63% 37%

UHK Krems Alpla HC Hard

Recent form · 10 last

UHK Krems 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDWLLW

Alpla HC Hard 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLLLW

Head-to-head

UHK Krems 4–2 Alpla HC Hard (6 last)

Alpla HC Hard21-24UHK Krems
Alpla HC Hard35-32UHK Krems
UHK Krems32-31Alpla HC Hard
UHK Krems25-23Alpla HC Hard
Alpla HC Hard30-32UHK Krems
UHK Krems30-36Alpla HC Hard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UHK Krems 1530 · Alpla HC Hard 1478

	UHK Krems	Alpla HC Hard
Our model	67%	33%
Market	53%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 60.5 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.5UHK Krems 30.7 · Alpla HC Hard 29.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UHK Krems (rating 1530 vs 1478).
H2H favours UHK Krems: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	UHK Krems	Alpla HC Hard
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.2 / 29.4	30.3 / 29.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.4 / 29	31.2 / 30.8
Est. result	31	30

Est. total60.5

Line O/U59.5

Diff.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.70

X8.00

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.85

Under 59.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · Est. total: 59.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:16 +38’	1.70	8.00	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UHK Krems 4–0–2 Alpla HC Hard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Austria Cup	Alpla HC Hard	21-24	UHK Krems
20/02/26 Austria HLA	Alpla HC Hard	35-32	UHK Krems
20/09/25 Austria HLA	UHK Krems	32-31	Alpla HC Hard
06/06/25 Austria HLA	UHK Krems	25-23	Alpla HC Hard
30/05/25 Austria HLA	Alpla HC Hard	30-32	UHK Krems
15/02/25 Austria HLA	UHK Krems	30-36	Alpla HC Hard

Standings · Austria HLA

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Handball Tirol	3	3	0	0	91	85	6
2	SC Ferlach	3	2	1	0	95	87	5
3	Fivers WAT Margareten	2	2	0	0	76	59	4
4	HSG Graz	2	2	0	0	65	61	4
5	BT Fuchse	4	2	0	2	115	121	4
6	Bregenz Handball	3	1	1	1	95	90	3
7	Alpla HC Hard	3	1	0	2	93	90	2
8	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	4	1	0	3	111	111	2
9	UHK Krems	3	1	0	2	88	91	2
10	HC Linz AG	3	1	0	2	86	93	2
11	Voslauer HC	3	1	0	2	92	93	2
12	WAT Atzgersdorf	3	0	0	3	81	107	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UHK Krems	Alpla HC Hard
BT Fuchse	27-25 W	33-35 L
SC Ferlach	27-31 L	26-28 L
HC Linz AG	31-29 W	26-24 W
Fivers WAT Margareten	26-31 L	31-33 L
Voslauer HC	29-33 L	34-27 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alpla HC Hard (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UHK Krems

WWLLWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	27-25	W
05/09	HSG Graz Austria HLA	32-35	L
09/05	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	27-31	L
06/05	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	35-23	W
02/05	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	31-31	D
18/04	HC Linz AG Austria HLA	31-29	W
15/04	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	26-31	L
11/04	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	29-33	L
27/03	Bregenz Handball Austria HLA	35-28	W
14/03	HSG Graz Austria HLA	29-28	W

Alpla HC Hard

WWLWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	34-27	W
09/09	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	26-28	L
05/09	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	33-35	L
09/05	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	31-33	L
05/05	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	32-31	W
01/05	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	32-33	L
18/04	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	33-31	W
15/04	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat Austria HLA	28-30	L
10/04	HC Linz AG Austria HLA	26-24	W
27/03	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	28-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UHK Krems vs Alpla HC Hard?

Our model gives 63% to UHK Krems.

How many points are expected in UHK Krems vs Alpla HC Hard?

The model estimates 60.5 total points (UHK Krems 30.7 · Alpla HC Hard 29.8).