Handball · Austria HLA · 03/10, 20:20

Prediction: Alpla HC Hard vs HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat

Team pages: Alpla HC Hard · HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.6Total

Alpla HC Hard30.1

HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat28.5

1X2

73% 27%

Alpla HC Hard HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat

Recent form · 10 last

Alpla HC Hard 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Alpla HC Hard 4–1–1 HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat (6 last)

HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat30-28Alpla HC Hard
Alpla HC Hard31-31HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
Alpla HC Hard34-25HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat26-30Alpla HC Hard
Alpla HC Hard29-25HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat30-31Alpla HC Hard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alpla HC Hard 1482 · HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 1460

	Alpla HC Hard	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
Our model	63%	37%
Market	71%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 58.6 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · -0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.6Alpla HC Hard 30.1 · HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 28.5

Match keys

Alpla HC Hard is a clear favourite (73% market).
H2H favours Alpla HC Hard: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Alpla HC Hard	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.7 / 29.9	27.9 / 28.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.2 / 30	27.4 / 27.8
Est. result	30	29

Est. total58.6

Line O/U59.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.27

X9.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.75

2 (+3.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.85

Under 59.51.85

Diff.: 1 · Est. total: 58.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:08 +22’	1.27	9.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alpla HC Hard 4–1–1 HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Austria HLA	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	30-28	Alpla HC Hard
21/11/25 Austria HLA	Alpla HC Hard	31-31	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
28/02/25 Austria HLA	Alpla HC Hard	34-25	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
12/10/24 Austria HLA	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	26-30	Alpla HC Hard
28/02/24 Austria HLA	Alpla HC Hard	29-25	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
14/10/23 Austria HLA	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	30-31	Alpla HC Hard

Standings · Austria HLA

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Handball Tirol	4	4	0	0	125	117	8
2	SC Ferlach	4	3	1	0	122	109	7
3	Bregenz Handball	4	2	1	1	129	117	5
4	HC Linz AG	4	2	0	2	122	122	4
5	BT Fuchse	4	2	0	2	115	121	4
6	Fivers WAT Margareten	3	2	0	1	108	93	4
7	Alpla HC Hard	4	2	0	2	125	117	4
8	HSG Graz	3	2	0	1	94	97	4
9	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	4	1	0	3	111	111	2
10	Voslauer HC	4	1	0	3	114	120	2
11	UHK Krems	4	1	0	3	115	123	2
12	WAT Atzgersdorf	4	0	0	4	108	141	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alpla HC Hard	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat
Voslauer HC	34-27 W	26-28 L
SC Ferlach	26-28 L	26-26 D
BT Fuchse	33-35 L	26-27 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alpla HC Hard

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	UHK Krems Austria HLA	32-27	W
23/09	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	34-27	W
09/09	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	26-28	L
05/09	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	33-35	L
09/05	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	31-33	L
05/05	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	32-31	W
01/05	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	32-33	L
18/04	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	33-31	W
15/04	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat Austria HLA	28-30	L
10/04	HC Linz AG Austria HLA	26-24	W

HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat

LDWDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/09	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	26-27	L
18/09	Handball Tirol Austria HLA	26-29	L
11/09	HSG Graz Austria HLA	29-30	L
04/09	WAT Atzgersdorf Austria HLA	30-25	W
06/05	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	26-28	L
02/05	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	25-30	L
18/04	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	26-26	D
15/04	Alpla HC Hard Austria HLA	30-28	W
11/04	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	26-26	D
28/03	UHC Hollabrunn Austria HLA	35-36	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alpla HC Hard vs HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat?

Our model gives 73% to Alpla HC Hard.

How many points are expected in Alpla HC Hard vs HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat?

The model estimates 58.6 total points (Alpla HC Hard 30.1 · HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat 28.5).