Handball · Austria HLA · 26/09, 19:00

Prediction: HC Linz AG vs HSG Graz

Team pages: HC Linz AG · HSG Graz

Prediction summary

Estimated points

57.8Total

HC Linz AG29.2

HSG Graz28.6

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

53% 47%

HC Linz AG HSG Graz

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Under 60.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

HC Linz AG 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLLLW

HSG Graz 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWWLWW

Head-to-head

HC Linz AG 3–1–2 HSG Graz (6 last)

HSG Graz32-32HC Linz AG
HC Linz AG38-35HSG Graz
HSG Graz26-32HC Linz AG
HC Linz AG23-27HSG Graz
HSG Graz32-29HC Linz AG
HC Linz AG32-23HSG Graz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HC Linz AG 1469 · HSG Graz 1518

	HC Linz AG	HSG Graz
Our model	53%	47%
Market	48%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 57.8 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · -2.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points57.8HC Linz AG 29.2 · HSG Graz 28.6

Over / Under 60.5Under · 65%recent trend · ~58.7 pts · strength 2

Match keys

H2H favours HC Linz AG: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HC Linz AG	HSG Graz
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28 / 28.3	29.4 / 30.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 30.2	30.8 / 29.4
Est. result	29	29

Est. total57.8

Line O/U60.5

Diff.2.7

Over / Under35% / 65%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.90

X8.00

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.85

Under 60.51.85

Diff.: 2.55 · Est. total: 57.95

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 14:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.52 → 1.90▲	Bet365 1.90
X	8.50 → 8.00▼	Bet365 8.00
2	3.00 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:16 +39’	1.52	8.50	3.00
17:14 +10’	2.10▲	8.00▼	2.00▼
18:17 +6’	1.75▼	8.00	2.50▲
19:16 +8’	2.10▲	8.00	2.00▼
14:24 +6’	1.90▼	8.00	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HC Linz AG 3–1–2 HSG Graz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Austria HLA	HSG Graz	32-32	HC Linz AG
14/09/25 Austria HLA	HC Linz AG	38-35	HSG Graz
08/02/25 Austria HLA	HSG Graz	26-32	HC Linz AG
21/09/24 Austria HLA	HC Linz AG	23-27	HSG Graz
13/04/24 Austria HLA	HSG Graz	32-29	HC Linz AG
20/12/23 Austria HLA	HC Linz AG	32-23	HSG Graz

Standings · Austria HLA

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Handball Tirol	3	3	0	0	91	85	6
2	SC Ferlach	3	2	1	0	95	87	5
3	Fivers WAT Margareten	2	2	0	0	76	59	4
4	HSG Graz	2	2	0	0	65	61	4
5	BT Fuchse	4	2	0	2	115	121	4
6	Bregenz Handball	3	1	1	1	95	90	3
7	Alpla HC Hard	3	1	0	2	93	90	2
8	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	4	1	0	3	111	111	2
9	UHK Krems	3	1	0	2	88	91	2
10	HC Linz AG	3	1	0	2	86	93	2
11	Voslauer HC	3	1	0	2	92	93	2
12	WAT Atzgersdorf	3	0	0	3	81	107	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HC Linz AG	HSG Graz
Bregenz Handball	23-30 L	29-32 L
UHK Krems	29-31 L	35-32 W
HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	25-19 W	30-29 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HSG Graz (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HC Linz AG

WLLWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	WAT Atzgersdorf Austria HLA	35-29	W
12/09	Bregenz Handball Austria HLA	23-30	L
05/09	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	28-34	L
06/05	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	27-28	L
02/05	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	28-30	L
18/04	UHK Krems Austria HLA	29-31	L
15/04	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	34-25	W
10/04	Alpla HC Hard Austria HLA	24-26	L
28/03	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	27-31	L
14/03	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat Austria HLA	25-19	W

HSG Graz

LLLWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/09	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat Austria HLA	30-29	W
05/09	UHK Krems Austria HLA	35-32	W
03/06	Bregenz Handball Austria HLA	29-32	L
29/05	Handball Tirol Austria HLA	25-24	W
23/05	UHC Hollabrunn Austria HLA	35-30	W
09/05	Bregenz Handball Austria HLA	29-33	L
05/05	Handball Tirol Austria HLA	27-23	W
02/05	UHC Hollabrunn Austria HLA	21-23	L
18/04	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	35-39	L
15/04	Bregenz Handball Austria HLA	28-37	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HC Linz AG vs HSG Graz?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HC Linz AG 53% · HSG Graz 47%).

How many points are expected in HC Linz AG vs HSG Graz?

The model estimates 57.8 total points (HC Linz AG 29.2 · HSG Graz 28.6).

Over or under 60.5 points?

Recent history points to under 60.5 points (65%).