Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 01/11, 15:00

Prediction: HSG Wetzlar vs MT Melsungen

Team pages: HSG Wetzlar · MT Melsungen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.6Total

HSG Wetzlar29.1

MT Melsungen32.5

1X2

28% 72%

HSG Wetzlar MT Melsungen

Recent form · 10 last

HSG Wetzlar 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLDLLL

MT Melsungen 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

HSG Wetzlar 1–5 MT Melsungen (6 last)

HSG Wetzlar32-38MT Melsungen
MT Melsungen33-32HSG Wetzlar
HSG Wetzlar25-27MT Melsungen
MT Melsungen33-27HSG Wetzlar
HSG Wetzlar27-29MT Melsungen
MT Melsungen21-23HSG Wetzlar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSG Wetzlar 1399 · MT Melsungen 1568

	HSG Wetzlar	MT Melsungen
Our model	36%	64%
Market	21%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 61.6 points · Bet365 line 61.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.6HSG Wetzlar 29.1 · MT Melsungen 32.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MT Melsungen (rating 1399 vs 1568).
MT Melsungen is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours MT Melsungen: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSG Wetzlar	MT Melsungen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.2 / 33.9	31 / 28
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.6 / 33.6	29.6 / 27.4
Est. result	29	33

Est. total61.6

Line O/U61.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.50

X9.50

21.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.80

2 (-3.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.88

Under 61.51.88

Diff.: 0.05 · Est. total: 61.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	1.35 → 1.35	Bet365 1.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +3’	4.50	9.50	1.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSG Wetzlar 1–0–5 MT Melsungen

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	32-38	MT Melsungen
07/12/25 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	33-32	HSG Wetzlar
09/08/25 Club Friendlies	HSG Wetzlar	25-27	MT Melsungen
19/05/25 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	33-27	HSG Wetzlar
07/12/24 Germany Bundesliga	HSG Wetzlar	27-29	MT Melsungen
17/05/24 Germany Bundesliga	MT Melsungen	21-23	HSG Wetzlar

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	11	9	1	1	345	314	19
2	SC Magdeburg	10	9	0	1	332	289	18
3	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	10	8	1	1	347	311	17
4	TBV Lemgo	10	7	0	3	310	308	14
5	MT Melsungen	10	6	1	3	310	280	13
6	Fuchse Berlin	9	6	0	3	306	286	12
7	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	10	5	1	4	311	299	11
8	HC Erlangen	10	5	1	4	307	306	11
9	Vfl Gummersbach	9	4	2	3	280	273	10
10	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	10	4	2	4	292	298	10
11	Frisch Auf Goppingen	10	4	0	6	282	303	8
12	Rhein Neckar Lowen	10	3	1	6	289	304	7
13	ThSV Eisenach	10	2	2	6	281	305	6
14	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	8	2	1	5	234	227	5
15	HSV Hamburg	10	2	1	7	299	311	5
16	Bergischer HC	9	2	0	7	249	281	4
17	SG BBM Bietigheim	10	2	0	8	289	331	4
18	HSG Wetzlar	10	0	2	8	302	339	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSG Wetzlar	MT Melsungen
Fuchse Berlin	30-36 L	31-33 L
HC Erlangen	30-34 L	32-33 L
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	26-31 L	32-27 W
Rhein Neckar Lowen	30-30 D	28-30 L
Vfl Gummersbach	33-36 L	31-31 D
SC Magdeburg	30-38 L	37-34 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: MT Melsungen (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSG Wetzlar

LLDLLLDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	30-36	L
15/10	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	30-34	L
08/10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	26-31	L
02/10	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
27/09	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	32-37	L
20/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	33-36	L
13/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-38	L
07/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
03/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	27-31	L
30/08	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	33-35	L

MT Melsungen

LWDWWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	27-26	W
17/10	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	33-26	W
11/10	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-33	L
03/10	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-22	W
26/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-30	L
20/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	37-34	W
13/09	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	32-27	W
05/09	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
02/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	31-18	W
27/08	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	31-33	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSG Wetzlar vs MT Melsungen?

Our model gives 72% to MT Melsungen.

How many points are expected in HSG Wetzlar vs MT Melsungen?

The model estimates 61.6 total points (HSG Wetzlar 29.1 · MT Melsungen 32.5).