Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 30/10, 19:00

Prediction: SG BBM Bietigheim vs HC Erlangen

Team pages: HC Erlangen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.6Total

SG BBM Bietigheim29.7

HC Erlangen31.8

1X2

42% 58%

SG BBM Bietigheim HC Erlangen

Markets

Over 58.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

SG BBM Bietigheim 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWLL

HC Erlangen 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

SG BBM Bietigheim 0–1–5 HC Erlangen (6 last)

SG BBM Bietigheim23-29HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen25-25SG BBM Bietigheim
HC Erlangen27-25SG BBM Bietigheim
SG BBM Bietigheim24-26HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen34-20SG BBM Bietigheim
SG BBM Bietigheim19-33HC Erlangen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SG BBM Bietigheim 1425 · HC Erlangen 1525

	SG BBM Bietigheim	HC Erlangen
Our model	46%	54%
Market	35%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 61.6 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · +3.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.6SG BBM Bietigheim 29.7 · HC Erlangen 31.8

Over / Under 58.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~61.3 pts · strength 3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HC Erlangen (rating 1425 vs 1525).
H2H favours HC Erlangen: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SG BBM Bietigheim	HC Erlangen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.9 / 33.1	30.7 / 30.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.6 / 32.8	30.8 / 30.4
Est. result	30	32

Est. total61.6

Line O/U58.5

Diff.3.1

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.70

X8.00

21.78

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.78

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.88

Under 58.51.88

Diff.: 3.15 · Est. total: 61.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.55 → 1.78▲	Bet365 1.78

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:34 +42’	3.40	8.00	1.55
14:42 +36’	2.70▼	8.00	1.78▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SG BBM Bietigheim 0–1–5 HC Erlangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/25 Germany Bundesliga	SG BBM Bietigheim	23-29	HC Erlangen
05/12/24 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	25-25	SG BBM Bietigheim
16/05/19 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	27-25	SG BBM Bietigheim
06/12/18 Germany Bundesliga	SG BBM Bietigheim	24-26	HC Erlangen
19/08/18 Germany DHB Pokal	HC Erlangen	34-20	SG BBM Bietigheim
20/08/17 Germany DHB Pokal	SG BBM Bietigheim	19-33	HC Erlangen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	11	9	1	1	345	314	19
2	SC Magdeburg	10	9	0	1	332	289	18
3	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	10	8	1	1	347	311	17
4	TBV Lemgo	10	7	0	3	310	308	14
5	MT Melsungen	10	6	1	3	310	280	13
6	Fuchse Berlin	9	6	0	3	306	286	12
7	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	10	5	1	4	311	299	11
8	HC Erlangen	10	5	1	4	307	306	11
9	Vfl Gummersbach	9	4	2	3	280	273	10
10	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	10	4	2	4	292	298	10
11	Frisch Auf Goppingen	10	4	0	6	282	303	8
12	Rhein Neckar Lowen	10	3	1	6	289	304	7
13	ThSV Eisenach	10	2	2	6	281	305	6
14	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	8	2	1	5	234	227	5
15	HSV Hamburg	10	2	1	7	299	311	5
16	Bergischer HC	9	2	0	7	249	281	4
17	SG BBM Bietigheim	10	2	0	8	289	331	4
18	HSG Wetzlar	10	0	2	8	302	339	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SG BBM Bietigheim	HC Erlangen
Frisch Auf Goppingen	29-25 W	30-32 L
SC Magdeburg	24-33 L	28-35 L
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	29-31 L	28-28 D
ThSV Eisenach	25-31 L	28-19 W
TBV Lemgo	29-36 L	33-28 W
THW Kiel	28-36 L	31-36 L
HSG Wetzlar	35-33 W	34-30 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HC Erlangen (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SG BBM Bietigheim

WLLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
22/10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	29-39	L
17/10	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	30-35	L
10/10	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-25	W
03/10	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	31-32	L
26/09	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	24-33	L
19/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	29-31	L
10/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	25-31	L
06/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	29-36	L
03/09	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	28-36	L
30/08	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	35-33	W

HC Erlangen

LDLWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	31-36	L
15/10	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	34-30	W
11/10	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
04/10	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	28-35	L
28/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-19	W
20/09	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	33-28	W
13/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
05/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	33-38	L
02/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SG BBM Bietigheim vs HC Erlangen?

Our model gives 58% to HC Erlangen.

How many points are expected in SG BBM Bietigheim vs HC Erlangen?

The model estimates 61.6 total points (SG BBM Bietigheim 29.7 · HC Erlangen 31.8).

Over or under 58.5 points?

Recent history points to over 58.5 points (65%).