Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 02/09, 19:00

Prediction: HSV Hamburg vs TVB 1898 Stuttgart

Team pages: TVB 1898 Stuttgart

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.4Total

HSV Hamburg30.1

TVB 1898 Stuttgart30.4

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

64% 36%

HSV Hamburg TVB 1898 Stuttgart

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

HSV Hamburg 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLWWL

TVB 1898 Stuttgart 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLLLWWWW

Head-to-head

HSV Hamburg 4–2 TVB 1898 Stuttgart (6 last)

HSV Hamburg31-26TVB 1898 Stuttgart
TVB 1898 Stuttgart33-36HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg41-28TVB 1898 Stuttgart
TVB 1898 Stuttgart27-28HSV Hamburg
TVB 1898 Stuttgart35-26HSV Hamburg
HSV Hamburg31-36TVB 1898 Stuttgart

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSV Hamburg 1504 · TVB 1898 Stuttgart 1525

	HSV Hamburg	TVB 1898 Stuttgart
Our model	57%	43%
Market	61%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 60.4 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.4HSV Hamburg 30.1 · TVB 1898 Stuttgart 30.4

Match keys

H2H favours HSV Hamburg: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSV Hamburg	TVB 1898 Stuttgart
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.8 / 31.7	28.8 / 29.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31 / 34	29.6 / 28.6
Est. result	30	30

Est. total60.4

Line O/U61.5

Diff.1.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.55

X8.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)2.05

2 (+2.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.88

Under 61.51.88

Diff.: 1.25 · Est. total: 60.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:30 +16’	1.55	8.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HSV Hamburg 4–0–2 TVB 1898 Stuttgart

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	31-26	TVB 1898 Stuttgart
31/08/25 Germany Bundesliga	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	33-36	HSV Hamburg
15/05/25 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	41-28	TVB 1898 Stuttgart
28/11/24 Germany Bundesliga	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	27-28	HSV Hamburg
28/04/24 Germany Bundesliga	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	35-26	HSV Hamburg
12/10/23 Germany Bundesliga	HSV Hamburg	31-36	TVB 1898 Stuttgart

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	1	1	0	35	27	2
2	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	1	1	0	30	26	2
3	Frisch Auf Goppingen	1	1	0	32	30	2
3	Fuchse Berlin	1	1	0	33	31	2
3	SC Magdeburg	1	1	0	33	31	2
3	SG BBM Bietigheim	1	1	0	35	33	2
3	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	1	1	0	33	31	2
8	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	1	1	0	32	31	2
8	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	1	1	0	30	29	2
10	Bergischer HC	1	0	1	29	30	0
10	Rhein Neckar Lowen	1	0	1	31	32	0
12	HC Erlangen	1	0	1	30	32	0
12	HSG Wetzlar	1	0	1	33	35	0
12	MT Melsungen	1	0	1	31	33	0
12	ThSV Eisenach	1	0	1	31	33	0
12	Vfl Gummersbach	1	0	1	31	33	0
17	HSV Hamburg	1	0	1	26	30	0
18	TBV Lemgo	1	0	1	27	35	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSV Hamburg	TVB 1898 Stuttgart
HSG Wetzlar	33-32 W	31-31 D
Frisch Auf Goppingen	28-34 L	33-32 W
SC Magdeburg	28-41 L	26-30 L
HC Erlangen	31-23 W	22-17 W
Bergischer HC	34-35 L	30-29 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: TVB 1898 Stuttgart (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSV Hamburg

LWLWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/08	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	26-30	L
07/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	40-33	W
04/06	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
25/05	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	28-34	L
10/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	28-41	L
03/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	31-26	W
25/04	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	31-23	W
12/04	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	27-34	L
05/04	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	30-29	W
26/03	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	34-35	L

TVB 1898 Stuttgart

DDDLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/08	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	30-29	W
07/06	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	22-17	W
03/06	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	33-32	W
24/05	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	37-33	W
07/05	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
03/05	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	26-31	L
26/04	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	26-30	L
12/04	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	25-25	D
02/04	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
29/03	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	32-32	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSV Hamburg vs TVB 1898 Stuttgart?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HSV Hamburg 64% · TVB 1898 Stuttgart 36%).

How many points are expected in HSV Hamburg vs TVB 1898 Stuttgart?

The model estimates 60.4 total points (HSV Hamburg 30.1 · TVB 1898 Stuttgart 30.4).