Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 02/09, 20:00

Prediction: Bergischer HC vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Team pages: Bergischer HC · SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.1Total

Bergischer HC31.2

SG Flensburg-Handewitt33.9

1X2

23% 77%

Bergischer HC SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Recent form · 10 last

Bergischer HC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLWWL

SG Flensburg-Handewitt 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Bergischer HC 0–6 SG Flensburg-Handewitt (6 last)

SG Flensburg-Handewitt36-29Bergischer HC
Bergischer HC33-43SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Bergischer HC30-40SG Flensburg-Handewitt
SG Flensburg-Handewitt37-29Bergischer HC
SG Flensburg-Handewitt33-28Bergischer HC
SG Flensburg-Handewitt30-17Bergischer HC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bergischer HC 1469 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 1591

	Bergischer HC	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Our model	43%	57%
Market	9%	84%

Estimated total (ours) 65.1 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.1Bergischer HC 31.2 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 33.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SG Flensburg-Handewitt (rating 1469 vs 1591).
SG Flensburg-Handewitt is a clear favourite (77% market).
H2H favours SG Flensburg-Handewitt: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bergischer HC	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29 / 30.4	35.4 / 32.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 28.8	34 / 34.6
Est. result	31	34

Est. total65.1

Line O/U65.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

110.00

X15.00

21.12

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+5.5)2.00

2 (-5.5)1.78

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.88

Under 65.51.88

Diff.: 1.65 · Est. total: 63.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
2	1.12 → 1.12	Bet365 1.12

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:38 +8’	10.00	15.00	1.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bergischer HC 0–0–6 SG Flensburg-Handewitt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/12/25 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	36-29	Bergischer HC
21/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	33-43	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
02/06/24 Germany Bundesliga	Bergischer HC	30-40	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
13/12/23 Germany DHB Pokal	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	37-29	Bergischer HC
28/09/23 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	33-28	Bergischer HC
19/02/23 Germany Bundesliga	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	30-17	Bergischer HC

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	1	1	0	35	27	2
2	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	1	1	0	30	26	2
3	Frisch Auf Goppingen	1	1	0	32	30	2
3	Fuchse Berlin	1	1	0	33	31	2
3	SC Magdeburg	1	1	0	33	31	2
3	SG BBM Bietigheim	1	1	0	35	33	2
3	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	1	1	0	33	31	2
8	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	1	1	0	32	31	2
8	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	1	1	0	30	29	2
10	Bergischer HC	1	0	1	29	30	0
10	Rhein Neckar Lowen	1	0	1	31	32	0
12	HC Erlangen	1	0	1	30	32	0
12	HSG Wetzlar	1	0	1	33	35	0
12	MT Melsungen	1	0	1	31	33	0
12	ThSV Eisenach	1	0	1	31	33	0
12	Vfl Gummersbach	1	0	1	31	33	0
17	HSV Hamburg	1	0	1	26	30	0
18	TBV Lemgo	1	0	1	27	35	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bergischer HC	SG Flensburg-Handewitt
TVB 1898 Stuttgart	29-30 L	33-37 L
TSV GWD Minden	28-28 D	35-31 W
TSV Hannover Burgdorf	30-29 W	35-32 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SG Flensburg-Handewitt (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bergischer HC

WLDLWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/08	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
07/06	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	29-28	W
29/05	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	32-26	W
24/05	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	23-32	L
08/05	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
02/05	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	30-29	W
26/04	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	29-33	L
12/04	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	25-25	D
02/04	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	30-39	L
26/03	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	35-34	W

SG Flensburg-Handewitt

WWWWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/08	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	33-31	W
07/06	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	38-43	L
04/06	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	36-31	W
24/05	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	33-37	L
21/05	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	30-31	L
09/05	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	38-30	W
24/04	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	40-30	W
11/04	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	36-33	W
04/04	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	35-32	W
27/03	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	35-31	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bergischer HC vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt?

Our model gives 77% to SG Flensburg-Handewitt.

How many points are expected in Bergischer HC vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt?

The model estimates 65.1 total points (Bergischer HC 31.2 · SG Flensburg-Handewitt 33.9).