Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 30/09, 19:00

Prediction: SC Magdeburg vs THW Kiel

Team pages: SC Magdeburg · THW Kiel

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62Total

SC Magdeburg31.7

THW Kiel30.3

1X2

73% 27%

SC Magdeburg THW Kiel

Recent form · 10 last

SC Magdeburg 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWLW

THW Kiel 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWWWD

Head-to-head

SC Magdeburg 0–1–5 THW Kiel (6 last)

THW Kiel31-29SC Magdeburg
SC Magdeburg26-26THW Kiel
THW Kiel31-25SC Magdeburg
THW Kiel29-28SC Magdeburg
SC Magdeburg24-29THW Kiel
SC Magdeburg28-32THW Kiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Magdeburg 1623 · THW Kiel 1569

	SC Magdeburg	THW Kiel
Our model	67%	33%
Market	69%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 62 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62SC Magdeburg 31.7 · THW Kiel 30.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Magdeburg (rating 1623 vs 1569).
SC Magdeburg is a clear favourite (73% market).
H2H favours THW Kiel: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SC Magdeburg	THW Kiel
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.8 / 30.9	31.2 / 29.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	34.4 / 30.6	31.2 / 28.6
Est. result	32	30

Est. total62

Line O/U62.5

Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.37

X9.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)2.00

2 (+3.5)1.78

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 0.25 · Est. total: 62.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.37 → 1.37	Bet365 1.37
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +17’	1.37	9.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Magdeburg 0–1–5 THW Kiel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	31-29	SC Magdeburg
23/12/25 Germany Bundesliga	SC Magdeburg	26-26	THW Kiel
08/02/25 Germany Bundesliga	THW Kiel	31-25	SC Magdeburg
13/11/24 Germany DHB Pokal	THW Kiel	29-28	SC Magdeburg
22/09/24 Germany Bundesliga	SC Magdeburg	24-29	THW Kiel
09/06/24 Champions League	SC Magdeburg	28-32	THW Kiel

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	6	5	1	0	212	188	11
2	THW Kiel	6	5	1	0	191	170	11
3	SC Magdeburg	6	5	0	1	205	184	10
4	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	6	4	1	1	183	173	9
5	Fuchse Berlin	5	4	0	1	169	154	8
6	MT Melsungen	6	3	1	2	190	173	7
7	Vfl Gummersbach	6	3	1	2	195	186	7
8	HC Erlangen	6	3	1	2	181	173	7
9	Rhein Neckar Lowen	6	3	0	3	171	173	6
10	Frisch Auf Goppingen	6	3	0	3	170	188	6
11	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	153	157	5
12	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	5	2	0	3	151	142	4
13	TBV Lemgo	5	2	0	3	152	163	4
14	HSV Hamburg	6	1	1	4	190	195	3
15	ThSV Eisenach	6	1	1	4	166	181	3
16	SG BBM Bietigheim	6	1	0	5	170	200	2
17	HSG Wetzlar	6	0	1	5	186	208	1
18	Bergischer HC	6	0	0	6	168	195	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Magdeburg	THW Kiel
SG BBM Bietigheim	33-24 W	36-28 W
Fuchse Berlin	36-32 W	28-35 L
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	31-30 W	31-31 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SC Magdeburg (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Magdeburg

WWWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	33-24	W
20/09	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	34-37	L
13/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	38-30	W
06/09	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	31-30	W
03/09	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	36-32	W
30/08	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	33-31	W
07/06	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	31-30	W
03/06	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	38-35	W
24/05	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	33-30	W
21/05	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	31-30	W

THW Kiel

LWLLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
18/09	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-27	W
12/09	TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga	29-26	W
06/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
03/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	36-28	W
27/08	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	35-27	W
07/06	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	31-34	L
03/06	TSV GWD Minden Germany Bundesliga	30-34	L
24/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	32-23	W
10/05	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-35	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Magdeburg vs THW Kiel?

Our model gives 73% to SC Magdeburg.

How many points are expected in SC Magdeburg vs THW Kiel?

The model estimates 62 total points (SC Magdeburg 31.7 · THW Kiel 30.3).