Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 02/09, 19:00

Prediction: HC Erlangen vs TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Team pages: HC Erlangen · TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.6Total

HC Erlangen28.8

TSV Hannover Burgdorf29.8

1X2

39% 61%

HC Erlangen TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Recent form · 10 last

HC Erlangen 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLLL

TSV Hannover Burgdorf 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWDLDW

Head-to-head

HC Erlangen 1–1–4 TSV Hannover Burgdorf (6 last)

HC Erlangen29-30TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf26-32HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen33-33TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf31-25HC Erlangen
TSV Hannover Burgdorf27-23HC Erlangen
HC Erlangen25-27TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HC Erlangen 1440 · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 1504

	HC Erlangen	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
Our model	51%	49%
Market	27%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 58.6 points · Bet365 line 58.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.6HC Erlangen 28.8 · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 29.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TSV Hannover Burgdorf (rating 1440 vs 1504).
H2H favours TSV Hannover Burgdorf: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HC Erlangen	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
Points F\|A (Last 10)	25.7 / 29.1	31.1 / 30.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	24.2 / 28.2	31.6 / 31
Est. result	29	30

Est. total58.6

Line O/U58.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.40

X8.00

21.52

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.75

2 (-2.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.88

Under 58.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · Est. total: 58.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.52 → 1.52	Bet365 1.52

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:39 +7’	3.40	8.00	1.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HC Erlangen 1–1–4 TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/26 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	29-30	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
26/09/25 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	26-32	HC Erlangen
02/03/25 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	33-33	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
15/12/24 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	31-25	HC Erlangen
02/06/24 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	27-23	HC Erlangen
24/08/23 Germany Bundesliga	HC Erlangen	25-27	TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	1	1	0	35	27	2
2	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	1	1	0	30	26	2
3	Frisch Auf Goppingen	1	1	0	32	30	2
3	Fuchse Berlin	1	1	0	33	31	2
3	SC Magdeburg	1	1	0	33	31	2
3	SG BBM Bietigheim	1	1	0	35	33	2
3	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	1	1	0	33	31	2
8	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	1	1	0	32	31	2
8	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	1	1	0	30	29	2
10	Bergischer HC	1	0	1	29	30	0
10	Rhein Neckar Lowen	1	0	1	31	32	0
12	HC Erlangen	1	0	1	30	32	0
12	HSG Wetzlar	1	0	1	33	35	0
12	MT Melsungen	1	0	1	31	33	0
12	ThSV Eisenach	1	0	1	31	33	0
12	Vfl Gummersbach	1	0	1	31	33	0
17	HSV Hamburg	1	0	1	26	30	0
18	TBV Lemgo	1	0	1	27	35	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HC Erlangen	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
Bergischer HC	26-32 L	29-30 L
Vfl Gummersbach	22-26 L	27-33 L
SC DHFK Leipzig	29-30 L	36-33 W
Rhein Neckar Lowen	29-27 W	32-31 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HC Erlangen

LWLLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/08	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	30-32	L
07/06	TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga	17-22	L
29/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	26-32	L
23/05	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
10/05	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	22-26	L
30/04	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
25/04	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	23-31	L
12/04	SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga	31-35	L
05/04	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	29-27	W
29/03	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	24-27	L

TSV Hannover Burgdorf

LLWDLWDLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/08	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	32-31	W
07/06	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	32-32	D
03/06	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	28-29	L
21/05	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
08/05	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany Bundesliga	36-33	W
02/05	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	29-30	L
26/04	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	30-30	D
10/04	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	35-26	W
04/04	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	32-35	L
28/03	Vfl Gummersbach Germany Bundesliga	27-33	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HC Erlangen vs TSV Hannover Burgdorf?

Our model gives 61% to TSV Hannover Burgdorf.

How many points are expected in HC Erlangen vs TSV Hannover Burgdorf?

The model estimates 58.6 total points (HC Erlangen 28.8 · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 29.8).