Handball · France Proligue · 04/09, 20:30

Prediction: Grand Besançon vs Creteil

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.5Total

Grand Besançon31.8

Creteil30.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

52% 48%

Grand Besançon Creteil

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Under 65.5 points 80%

Recent form · 10 last

Grand Besançon 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLLLWL

Creteil 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLWWLL

Head-to-head

Grand Besançon 1–1–2 Creteil (4 last)

Creteil31-30Grand Besançon
Grand Besançon38-33Creteil
Creteil34-31Grand Besançon
Grand Besançon30-30Creteil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grand Besançon 1486 · Creteil 1477

	Grand Besançon	Creteil
Our model	61%	39%
Market	40%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 62.5 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.5Grand Besançon 31.8 · Creteil 30.7

Over / Under 65.5Under · 80%recent trend · ~63.5 pts · strength 2

Match keys

H2H favours Creteil: 2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Grand Besançon	Creteil
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.3 / 32.4	29.4 / 30.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.2 / 33.6	29 / 28.8
Est. result	32	31

Est. total62.5

Line O/U65.5

Diff.3

Over / Under20% / 80%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.25

X8.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.85

Under 65.51.85

Diff.: 3.6 · Est. total: 61.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:22 +30’	2.25	8.50	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grand Besançon 1–1–2 Creteil

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 France Proligue	Creteil	31-30	Grand Besançon
03/10/25 France Proligue	Grand Besançon	38-33	Creteil
11/05/18 France Proligue	Creteil	34-31	Grand Besançon
03/11/17 France Proligue	Grand Besançon	30-30	Creteil

Standings · France Proligue

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cournon d'Auvergne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dijon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Draguignan VHB	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Val D'Oise	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Frontignan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Grand Besançon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Istres Provence	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JS Cherbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Massy	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Billere	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontault-Combault	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	US Saintes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sarrebourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Creteil	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ivry	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valence	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grand Besançon	Creteil
Sarrebourg	31-34 L	23-24 L
Frontignan	39-32 W	36-36 D
JS Cherbourg	29-31 L	29-30 L
Ivry	27-36 L	31-31 D
Valence	31-28 W	27-36 L
Pontault-Combault	31-31 D	26-30 L
Angers	36-35 W	34-29 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Creteil (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grand Besançon

LWLDWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/05	Sarrebourg France Proligue	31-34	L
01/05	Frontignan France Proligue	39-32	W
24/04	Cournon d'Auvergne France Proligue	30-35	L
17/04	JS Cherbourg France Proligue	29-31	L
14/04	Ivry France Proligue	27-36	L
10/04	Valence France Proligue	31-28	W
03/04	Pontault-Combault France Proligue	31-31	D
27/03	US Saintes France Proligue	29-31	L
13/03	Angers France Proligue	36-35	W
08/03	Creteil France Proligue	30-31	L

Creteil

LLDDLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/05	Caen Handball France Proligue	25-37	L
21/05	Caen Handball France Proligue	30-31	L
07/05	Massy France Proligue	33-23	W
30/04	Angers France Proligue	34-29	W
18/04	Sarrebourg France Proligue	23-24	L
14/04	Valence France Proligue	27-36	L
10/04	Frontignan France Proligue	36-36	D
03/04	Ivry France Proligue	31-31	D
29/03	JS Cherbourg France Proligue	29-30	L
13/03	Pontault-Combault France Proligue	26-30	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grand Besançon vs Creteil?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Grand Besançon 52% · Creteil 48%).

How many points are expected in Grand Besançon vs Creteil?

The model estimates 62.5 total points (Grand Besançon 31.8 · Creteil 30.7).

Over or under 65.5 points?

Recent history points to under 65.5 points (80%).