Football · Uruguay Segunda · 15/11, 20:30

Prediction: Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs CA Atenas

Team pages: Atletico Fenix Montevideo · CA Atenas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.29

CA Atenas1.04

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo Draw CA Atenas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDLLDL

CA Atenas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDLWLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3–3 CA Atenas (6 last)

CA Atenas4-0Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo1-0CA Atenas
CA Atenas1-4Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo1-2CA Atenas
CA Atenas1-0Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo2-1CA Atenas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1474 · CA Atenas 1506

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Draw	CA Atenas
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	CA Atenas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.6	1.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.4	6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.45 ★
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	2.75 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:56 +21’	2.35	3.20	2.75
07:17 +4’	2.15▼	3.25▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:06 +15’	2.04	3.20	3.53
07:20	2.33▲	3.03▼	3.06▼
14:38	2.45▲	3.01▼	2.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3–0–3 CA Atenas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/26 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	4-0 HT 3-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
26/07/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Atenas
28/04/26 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-4 HT 0-2	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
26/10/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-2 HT 1-2	CA Atenas
03/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
21/10/18 Uruguay Clausura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2-1 HT 0-0	CA Atenas

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	CA Atenas
La Luz	0-1 L	1-0 W
Cerrito	1-1 D	0-0 D
Club Oriental	2-3 L	1-0 W
Colon FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
CA River Plate	1-0 W	3-2 W
Rentistas	1-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

LWDLWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
31/10	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
25/10	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-3	0-4	6	5	L
17/10	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
12/10	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
04/10	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
27/09	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-3	3	13	L
19/09	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
13/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
06/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	9	8	L

CA Atenas

WDWDWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
01/11	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
25/10	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
18/10	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-3	11	5	L
11/10	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
04/10	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
27/09	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
20/09	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
13/09	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
06/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-2	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs CA Atenas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Fenix Montevideo win (41%). Probabilities: Atletico Fenix Montevideo 41%, draw 29%, CA Atenas 30%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs CA Atenas?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.29 · CA Atenas 1.04), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs CA Atenas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.