Football · Uruguay Segunda · 12/11, 20:30

Prediction: Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas

Team pages: Plaza Colonia · Rentistas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Plaza Colonia0.94

Rentistas1.13

1X2

30% 30% 39%

Plaza Colonia Draw Rentistas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Plaza Colonia 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLDWDD

Rentistas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWLWDW

Head-to-head

Plaza Colonia 3–2–1 Rentistas (6 last)

Rentistas2-1Plaza Colonia
Rentistas1-1Plaza Colonia
Rentistas0-0Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia2-1Rentistas
Rentistas0-1Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia1-0Rentistas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Plaza Colonia 1501 · Rentistas 1536

	Plaza Colonia	Draw	Rentistas
Our model	29%	33%	38%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Plaza Colonia: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Plaza Colonia	Rentistas
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.6	6.3 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.10

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.78 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:58 +5’	2.88	3.10	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:48 +15’	2.60	2.93	2.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Plaza Colonia 3–2–1 Rentistas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/09/26 Uruguay Cup	Rentistas	2-1 HT 0-0	Plaza Colonia
10/08/26 Uruguay Segunda	Rentistas	1-1 HT 0-1	Plaza Colonia
14/03/26 Uruguay Segunda	Rentistas	0-0 HT 0-0	Plaza Colonia
14/09/24 Uruguay Segunda	Plaza Colonia	2-1 HT 1-1	Rentistas
01/06/24 Uruguay Segunda	Rentistas	0-1 HT 0-0	Plaza Colonia
20/04/24 Uruguay Segunda	Plaza Colonia	1-0 HT 0-0	Rentistas

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Plaza Colonia	Rentistas
CA River Plate	2-1 W	0-0 D
La Luz	1-1 D	2-0 W
Cerrito	1-3 L	2-2 D
CA Atenas	0-0 D	3-0 W
Paysandu FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Huracan DPA	2-1 W	2-1 W
Uruguay Montevideo	1-0 W	3-1 W
Club Oriental	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Rentistas (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Plaza Colonia

LWWDDLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	11	7	D
25/10	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
18/10	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
11/10	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
04/10	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-3	7	9	L
27/09	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	3	10	D
19/09	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-1	6	10	W
08/09	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
31/08	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	2	L

Rentistas

DWWLWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
25/10	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-2	2-2	5	8	D
18/10	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	2-0	3-0	0	5	W
11/10	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-2	6	12	L
03/10	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
26/09	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	2-0	3-1	9	9	W
20/09	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
13/09	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
06/09	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	2-1	3	8	W
30/08	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rentistas win (39%). Probabilities: Plaza Colonia 30%, draw 30%, Rentistas 39%.

How many goals are expected in Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Plaza Colonia 0.94 · Rentistas 1.13), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.