Football · Peru Liga 1 · 21/11, 21:30

Prediction: Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca

Team pages: Alianza Lima · FC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Alianza Lima2.41

FC Cajamarca0.78

1X2

73% 18% 10%

Alianza Lima Draw FC Cajamarca

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Lima 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWLWD

FC Cajamarca 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Alianza Lima 0–1–0 FC Cajamarca (1 last)

FC Cajamarca1-1Alianza Lima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1518 · FC Cajamarca 1449

	Alianza Lima	Draw	FC Cajamarca
Our model	72%	18%	10%
Market	73%	18%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (rating 1518 vs 1449).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Lima	FC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.3	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.25

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 6.31 ★
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +5’	1.27	5.25	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +9’	1.25	6.36	8.56
16:28 +3’	1.25▲	6.31▼	8.52▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 0–1–0 FC Cajamarca

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Peru Liga 1	FC Cajamarca	1-1 HT 1-0	Alianza Lima

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	20	9	4	54	24	69
2	Universitario de Deportes	33	17	10	6	59	39	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	56	38	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	16	7	10	50	35	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	63	48	51
6	Cusco FC	33	16	3	14	46	47	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	54	46	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	48	49	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	49	48	49
10	CD Los Chankas	33	13	9	11	40	52	48
11	Sport Boys	33	12	10	11	37	35	42
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	48	59	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	8	13	12	44	47	37
14	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	32	41	37
15	AD Tarma	33	7	11	15	36	48	31
16	Deportivo Moquegua	33	7	9	17	27	48	30
17	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	46	65	29
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	5	9	19	38	58	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Lima	FC Cajamarca
CD Los Chankas	1-1 D	2-1 W
Cienciano	1-0 W	2-5 L
Sporting Cristal	2-3 L	0-5 L
Deportivo Moquegua	1-0 W	0-1 L
Cusco FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
AD Tarma	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Lima (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Lima

LDLWWWWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
04/11	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
29/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	2-2	2-3	5	6	L
25/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
18/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
12/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
19/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
13/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
06/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	10	6	L

FC Cajamarca

WLWLDLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
02/11	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-5	2	7	L
28/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
25/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-4	3	2	L
18/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
10/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
19/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-5	4	2	L
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (73%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 73%, draw 18%, FC Cajamarca 10%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Alianza Lima 2.41 · FC Cajamarca 0.78), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.