Football · Brazil Serie B · 14/11, 20:30

Prediction: Fortaleza vs Vila Nova

Team pages: Fortaleza · Vila Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Fortaleza1.23

Vila Nova1.03

1X2

39% 31% 29%

Fortaleza Draw Vila Nova

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortaleza 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWDWDD

Vila Nova 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWDLD

Head-to-head

Fortaleza 2–2–1 Vila Nova (5 last)

Vila Nova2-1Fortaleza
Fortaleza2-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova0-0Fortaleza
Vila Nova0-0Fortaleza
Fortaleza3-2Vila Nova

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fortaleza: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortaleza	Vila Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5.1	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 21.83

Under 21.96

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:35

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.13 → 2.23▲	Pinn 2.23
X	2.99 → 3.06▲	Pinn 3.06
2	3.72 → 3.51▼	Pinn 3.51

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +14’	2.13	2.99	3.72
01:28 +8’	2.23▲	3.06▲	3.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza 2–2–1 Vila Nova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-1 HT 2-0	Fortaleza
22/09/18 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	2-0 HT 0-0	Vila Nova
06/06/18 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	0-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza
08/08/15 Brazil Serie C	Vila Nova	0-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza
24/05/15 Brazil Serie C	Fortaleza	3-2 HT 1-2	Vila Nova

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	36	19	10	7	64	31	67
2	EC Juventude	36	18	11	7	47	25	65
3	Vila Nova	36	18	9	9	52	38	63
4	Criciuma	36	18	8	10	38	30	62
5	Fortaleza	36	16	14	6	43	31	62
6	CRB	36	16	7	13	54	51	55
7	Goias	36	16	7	13	38	41	55
8	Atletico GO	36	14	13	9	42	33	55
9	Sport Recife	37	14	13	10	50	42	55
10	Operario PR	37	15	9	13	49	50	54
11	Sao Bernardo SP	36	14	10	12	51	40	52
12	Botafogo SP	37	14	9	14	45	39	51
13	Cuiaba	36	11	14	11	33	30	47
14	Athletic Club MG	36	11	14	11	42	41	47
15	Nautico	36	12	10	14	40	46	46
16	Ceara	36	11	10	15	38	46	43
17	Avai	36	10	7	19	33	46	37
18	Londrina	37	8	8	21	45	58	32
19	America MG	36	7	5	24	26	55	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortaleza	Vila Nova
America MG	1-0 W	1-0 W
Nautico	1-1 D	2-0 W
Londrina	2-1 W	2-0 W
Avai	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vila Nova (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortaleza

WDWDDWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
24/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
17/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
08/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
27/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	5	0	D
20/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

Vila Nova

WDWWWDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-2	9	5	D
24/10	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
18/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-2	6	5	D
11/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
08/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
03/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
26/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
15/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
11/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortaleza vs Vila Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortaleza win (39%). Probabilities: Fortaleza 39%, draw 31%, Vila Nova 29%.

How many goals are expected in Fortaleza vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Fortaleza 1.23 · Vila Nova 1.03), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortaleza vs Vila Nova?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.