Football · Brazil Serie B · 14/11, 20:30

Prediction: America MG vs Avai

Team pages: America MG · Avai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

America MG1.22

Avai0.92

1X2

42% 32% 27%

America MG Draw Avai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

America MG 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWWW

Avai 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWDLLW

Head-to-head

America MG 2–2–2 Avai (6 last)

Avai2-1America MG
America MG2-0Avai
Avai3-0America MG
Avai2-2America MG
America MG1-1Avai
America MG3-1Avai

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America MG	Avai
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.5	2.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.81

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:07

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.39 → 2.41▲	Pinn 2.41
X	3.36 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.40
2	2.82 → 2.85▲	Pinn 2.85

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:50 +15’	2.39	3.36	2.82
00:51 +16’	2.41▲	3.40▲	2.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 2–2–2 Avai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-1 HT 0-1	America MG
03/09/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-0 HT 1-0	Avai
27/04/25 Brazil Serie B	Avai	3-0 HT 1-0	America MG
12/10/24 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-2 HT 1-2	America MG
26/06/24 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-1 HT 1-1	Avai
31/07/22 Brazil Serie A	America MG	3-1 HT 1-1	Avai

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	37	20	10	7	66	32	70
2	EC Juventude	37	19	11	7	49	26	68
3	Vila Nova	37	19	9	9	53	38	66
4	Criciuma	37	18	8	11	38	31	62
5	Fortaleza	37	16	14	7	44	33	62
6	CRB	37	17	7	13	57	51	58
7	Goias	36	16	7	13	38	41	55
8	Atletico GO	36	14	13	9	42	33	55
9	Sport Recife	37	14	13	10	50	42	55
10	Operario PR	37	15	9	13	49	50	54
11	Sao Bernardo SP	37	14	10	13	52	42	52
12	Botafogo SP	37	14	9	14	45	39	51
13	Cuiaba	37	11	14	12	34	32	47
14	Athletic Club MG	36	11	14	11	42	41	47
15	Nautico	37	12	10	15	40	49	46
16	Ceara	36	11	10	15	38	46	43
17	Avai	37	11	7	19	35	47	40
18	Londrina	37	8	8	21	45	58	32
19	America MG	36	7	5	24	26	55	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America MG	Avai
Londrina	3-1 W	2-1 W
Cuiaba	1-0 W	1-0 W
Criciuma	0-1 L	0-3 L
Vila Nova	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sao Bernardo SP	0-2 L	2-1 W
Nautico	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: America MG (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America MG

WLLLLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Londrina Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
26/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
17/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
13/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
08/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
03/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
19/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
10/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W

Avai

DLLLWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
31/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	7	8	L
24/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	14	3	L
18/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
11/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
08/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
03/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
27/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
20/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	8	L
15/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America MG vs Avai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a America MG win (42%). Probabilities: America MG 42%, draw 32%, Avai 27%.

How many goals are expected in America MG vs Avai?

The model expects 2.15 goals (America MG 1.22 · Avai 0.92), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in America MG vs Avai?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.